Can the Zalgiris Vilnius score 85 points in Barcelona if the hosts force them to shoot more often from long range? The Lithuanian team have strong players under the basket, but need support from the perimeter to score heavily. That is where the visitors are currently struggling. The Barcelona need to shut off drives to the basket and deny them time to set themselves for long-range shots.
Barcelona
The Barcelona have already shown that they can make life difficult for teams that attempt a lot of three-pointers. In Istanbul, the Besiktas JK made just eight of their 33 attempts from long range and finished with 82 points. The Barcelona conceded the same number against the Anadolu Efes at home. However, the defeat by the Murcia (94:100) highlights their defensive problems: the hosts have yet to learn how to maintain the same level of defensive solidity throughout a match. After three away trips in a week, the Barcelona have time to recover and prepare for a home game.
Zalgiris Vilnius
The Zalgiris Vilnius have yet to reach the chosen threshold away from home. They scored 83 points in Belgrade and 78 in Paris. The latter match is particularly telling: the Lithuanian team scored 21 points from free throws but made just five of their 22 three-point attempts. Carsen Edwards scored 19 points on 22 field-goal attempts. Ąžuolas Tubelis and Jonas Valanciunas can score under the basket, but missed shots from the guards allow opponents to defend that area more tightly. Their 91 points at home against the Olympiacos show the visitors' potential, but they could not replicate that tally on their two away trips.
Barcelona vs Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction
We expect the Barcelona to focus on protecting the area under the basket and force the Lithuanian team to look for points from long range more often. Given the visitors' current shooting accuracy, that is a favourable scenario for an under bet. The Zalgiris Vilnius have also scored fewer than 85 points in five of the last six head-to-head meetings — further support alongside their recent away results. Our prediction is for the Zalgiris Vilnius to score under 84.5 points, including OT.
