Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA Madrid match.
World No. 6 Jasmine Paolini has started the season in fine form, registering notable victories over both Cori Gauff and Ons Jabeur. Katie Boulter, currently ranked 40th, has only just returned to the tour and has played a single clay court match this season — one that proved challenging. Boulter has historically struggled on clay, and facing a high-calibre opponent like Paolini, she is unlikely to mount a serious challenge.
Jasmine Paolini
Paolini showcased her clay court credentials last season by reaching the final at Roland Garros and making it to the fourth round in Madrid. Since the start of 2023, she has amassed 30 wins in 43 clay court matches, suffering only one defeat on the surface this year. At the Stuttgart tournament, she progressed to the semi-finals before losing in straight sets (5:7, 4:6) to World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, while maintaining an impressive 70% first-serve accuracy.
Katie Boulter
Boulter, on the other hand, has only just returned to competitive play following a prolonged absence due to a foot injury. She battled past Katerina Siniakova in the opening round (4:6, 6:2, 6:1), securing a much-needed win. However, prior to 2023, Boulter had never competed professionally on clay, and her overall record on the surface remains weak — just 4 wins in 10 matches. Her 2025 campaign has been unconvincing thus far, with five consecutive early eliminations, all ending in the second round or earlier.
Katie Boulter vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction
Given Paolini’s current form and proven ability on clay, she is strongly favoured to progress with little difficulty to the third round. Boulter’s inconsistency and lack of success on this surface suggest she is unlikely to offer much resistance. Paolini looks well-positioned for a routine victory over the 28-year-old.
