The Matchday 16 World Cup 2026 qualifying clash between Brazil and Paraguay will take place on June 11 at the Neo Química Arena in São Paulo. Brazil vs. Paraguay: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Brazil
Carlo Ancelotti's debut as the head coach of Brazil was far from successful. His new team did not lose, but for the fourth time in this qualifying cycle, they failed to score, resulting in a 0-0 draw. Notably, Brazil's current form shows only one victory in their last five South American qualifiers (3 draws and 1 loss). The team is among the top six, which grants a spot in the 2026 World Cup, but Brazil still needs to work hard to secure their place in the tournament.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 12 of Brazil's last 14 World Cup qualifying matches.
- In their last five South American qualifiers, Brazil has scored more than one goal only once.
- This century, Brazil has played 51 home matches in World Cup qualifiers, losing only once (39 wins and 11 draws).
Predicted lineup for Brazil (4-3-3)
Alisson Becker – Vanderson, Alex Sandro, Marquinhos, Alessandro – Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Gerson Santos – Estevao Willian, Vinicius Junior, Richarlison.
Paraguay
Gustavo Alfaro's team should have no trouble qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. In the last round, Paraguay took another step towards this goal by defeating Uruguay 2-0 at home. This victory elevated them to third place, tying with Ecuador on points (24 each). Notably, Paraguay has only three losses in this World Cup qualifying campaign. Only Ecuador has lost fewer times in the CONMEBOL zone (twice).
- Paraguay is unbeaten in nine consecutive matches in this tournament (5 wins and 4 draws).
- At least two goals have been scored in 5 of Paraguay's last 6 South American World Cup qualifying matches.
- However, Paraguay has not won away in 15 consecutive matches of this qualifying cycle (8 draws and 7 losses).
Predicted lineup for Paraguay (4-5-1)
Roberto Junior Fernandez – Gustavo Gomez, Omar Alderete, Junior Alonso, Juan Caceres – Miguel Almiron, Diego Gomez, Matias Galarza, Julio Enciso, Adrian Cubas – Antonio Sanabria.
Referee
Facundo Tello (Argentina)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024–2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 75;
Average yellow cards per match – 5;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 20%.
Brazil vs. Paraguay: Match Prediction
In the CONMEBOL zone, there's a common trend where teams perform well at home but struggle away. Only Argentina excels both at home and away, while other South American teams rarely win more than twice on foreign soil. Paraguay faces challenges away from home, with 5 draws and 2 losses in seven matches of this qualification.
Brazil boasts impressive results at home in all official tournaments. Carlo Ancelotti's team needs a victory in this match to move closer to securing a spot in the 2026 World Cup. In their last four home qualifiers, Brazil has won three times and drawn once.
In my opinion, the hosts will win, but I won't risk betting on a margin of two or more goals, as Paraguay has drawn their last five away qualifiers. Additionally, in the last five head-to-head matches held in Brazil during World Cup qualifiers, the hosts have always won, with four victories by more than one goal. My prediction: Brazil with a handicap (-1)
