The first leg of the Copa Libertadores 2025 Round of 16 between Fortaleza (Brazil) and Velez Sarsfield (Argentina) will take place on August 13 at the Governor Placido Castelo Stadium. Fortaleza vs. Velez Sarsfield: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Fortaleza
The Brazilian team qualified for the playoffs from Group E, where they finished second with 8 points. They conceded the top spot to Racing, losing both matches against them in the group. Notably, the club advanced from the group thanks to two victories over the bottom team Colo-Colo, one of which was awarded technically. Fortaleza last played in the Copa Libertadores playoffs in 2022, but they did not progress beyond the Round of 16.
During the transfer window, the team welcomed a new head coach, Renato Paiva. They also signed defenders Eros Mancuso, Gaston Avila, and Benjamin Kuscevic, as well as forwards Dylan Borrero and Breno Lopes. Midfielder Hercules was a notable departure.
- In their last 10 matches in this tournament, the club has secured only 2 wins (4 draws and 4 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in 7 of Fortaleza's last 9 Copa Libertadores matches.
- In their last 7 home games in the Copa Libertadores, the Brazilians have not lost in regular time 6 times (3 wins and 3 draws).
Predicted lineup for Fortaleza (4-3-3)
Vinicius da Costa – Eros Mancuso, Benjamin Kuscevic, Gustavo Mancha, Diogo Barbosa – Lucas Sasha, Matheus Pereira, Lucca Pimenta – Deyverson, Marinho, Breno Lopes.
Due to injuries, midfielder Tomas Pochettino, forward Moises Vieira, defender Emanuel Britez, and two main goalkeepers Joao Ricardo and Brenno are unavailable.
Velez Sarsfield
Guillermo Barros Schelotto's side finished first in Group H, achieving 3 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss. They edged out Penarol only on goal difference. Notably, the Argentines scored the most in their quartet with 11 goals. They also conceded just 4 goals, ranking third best defensively in the group stage. Velez Sarsfield last played in the Copa Libertadores playoffs three years ago, reaching the semifinals.
This summer, the team signed and loaned defender Aaron Quiros, midfielders Claudio Baeza, Jalil Elias, and Tomas Galvan, as well as forward Imanol Machuca. They also sold forward Mateo Pellegrino.
- The club has not lost in regular time in 12 of their last 15 Copa Libertadores games (8 wins and 4 draws).
- At least two goals were scored in 7 of Velez Sarsfield's last 8 matches in this tournament.
- The Argentines have not scored more than 1 goal in regular time in 9 of their last 11 away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Predicted lineup for Velez Sarsfield (4-2-3-1)
Tomas Marchiori – Jano Gordon, Emanuel Mammana, Elias Gomez, Lisandro Magallan – Claudio Baeza, Rodrigo Aliendro – Isaias Andrada, Maer Carriso, Imanol Machuca – Braian Romero.
Due to injuries, defender Isaias Andrada, midfielders Agustin Bouzat and Diego Valdes, as well as forwards Thiago Fernandez, Florian Monzon, and Michael Santos are unavailable.
Referee
Derlis Lopez (Paraguay)
Matches – 10 (International matches, 2022–2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 50;
Average yellow cards per match – 5;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 20%.
Fortaleza vs. Velez Sarsfield: Match Prediction
Brazilian-Argentine clashes always garner significant interest in South America. In knockout fixtures, performing well at home is often crucial. Notably, the Brazilians have suffered just 1 defeat in their last 7 home matches in this tournament. Meanwhile, the Argentines have failed to win 8 of their last 11 away games.
I slightly favor the hosts in this matchup and expect a low-scoring game. Fortaleza has been solid defensively at home, conceding more than one goal only once in their last 7 matches. Velez Sarsfield has decent away statistics, failing to score more than 1 goal in 5 of their last 6 away games in the Copa Libertadores. Additionally, the Argentines have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 away matches in this tournament.
My prediction – "1X and Total Under 2.5"
* Each team's lineup is based on their previous match.
