The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League second qualifying round between Kairat (Kazakhstan) and KuPS (Finland) will take place on July 29 at the Central Stadium in Almaty. The first match ended with a score of 2-0 in favor of KuPS. Kairat vs. KuPS: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Kairat
Rafael Urazbakhtin's team lost 0-2 to the Finns in the first match. This was the team's second defeat in their last seven Champions League matches (3 wins, 2 draws). Notably, Kairat failed to score in both losses. To advance to the next round, the Kazakh team needs to beat their opponent by at least three goals, but they have not achieved such a big win in the Champions League before.
- No more than two goals have been scored in 5 of Kairat's last 7 matches in the Champions League.
- The team has conceded in 4 of their last 5 encounters in this tournament.
- At home, the club has not lost in 9 of their last 12 European matches (6 wins, 3 draws).
Predicted lineup for Kairat (5-3-2)
Alexander Zarutskiy – Alexander Martynovich, Damir Kasabulat, Egor Sorokin, Erkin Tapalov, Luis Mata – Valery Gromyko, Alexander Mrynsky, Dan Glazer – Edmilson Filho, Jorginho Costa.
KuPS
The Finns have made a strong case for advancing to the next round. A key to their success has been their solid defensive play: the team has not conceded in three consecutive Champions League matches. In the return leg, Jarkko Wiss's side can afford to lose by a narrow margin. If the club loses by exactly two goals, extra time will be played. Notably, the Finns' last heavy defeat in European competitions was in 2022.
- The team has not conceded in 5 of their last 7 European matches.
- Away from home, KuPS has not won in 7 of their last 8 international matches (4 draws, 3 losses).
- In 6 of their last 8 away games in European competitions, the Finns have failed to score.
Predicted lineup for KuPS (3-4-3)
Johannes Kreidl – Ibrahima Cisse, Nicholas Hämäläinen, Samuli Miettinen – Doni Arifi, Otto Ruoppi, Petteri Pennanen, Jaakko Oksanen – Mohamed Toure, Jocelyn Luoyeye-Lutumba, Saku Savolainen.
Referee
Radoslav Gidjenov (Bulgaria)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 34;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.2;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 19;
Penalties – 13%.
Kairat vs. KuPS: Match Prediction
The Finns will likely focus on defending their advantage, so Jarkko Wiss's team will primarily aim to prevent the opponent from scoring. They have successfully done so in all three matches of the current Champions League campaign, and generally, the club concedes few goals even on the road in European competitions. The Finns have not conceded more than two goals in 7 of their last 8 away games in international competitions, and in 4 of these matches, they kept a clean sheet.
Kairat needs to score, but the club does not always show high scoring performance even in the national championship. In this KPL campaign, Rafael Urazbakhtin's team has scored at least three goals in only 5 of 17 matches, but in four of those games, their opponents were tournament outsiders. In the Champions League, the Kazakhs have never scored more than two goals.
My prediction: Kairat ITU 2.5
