Ludogorets have been thrashing all opponents in Bulgaria (12 goals in their last three matches), while Athletic Bilbao are winless in two La Liga games. But are these situations really comparable?
Yes, Ludogorets have been defensively solid in the Bulgarian league, conceding just one goal in 13 matches and dropping only two points. They conceded that goal on August 3rd and drew on the first day of autumn. However, this doesn't reflect the true form of the Bulgarian champions because they compete in a very weak league. Their reality is revealed in European competitions. In three Europa League league stage matches, Ludogorets have failed to score, losing 0:2 both at home and away. Their only draw came against the relatively comparable Viktoria Plzen.
Looking at Athletic Bilbao's results, there's no doubt about their strength. The two draws with league table neighbours hide some striking statistics. Against Mallorca (0:0), the Basques hit the target only once from 20 shots, while Mallorca managed just four shots, with one on target. A draw was a fair result for their away match, considering the xG was almost equal (0.59-0.61). But the game against Real Betis was something else entirely. By the 20th minute, Athletic Bilbao missed two 100% chances and hit the woodwork twice. Before halftime, they hit it again. In the second half, Real Betis opened the scoring, and their victory would have been unjust, so the Basques’ equaliser was unsurprising. Such dominance (4.01-0.84 in xG and 8-2 in clear chances) ending in a 1:1 draw is something Athletic Bilbao haven't experienced in a long time.
Athletic Bilbao will undoubtedly create chances, and they are due to capitalise against the Bulgarians. Thus, the visitors will win by more than one goal.
