Manchester City’s overall losing streak has been broken but could reignite, as they continue their winless run in the English Premier League, currently at four matches. Nottingham Forest, the visitors to the Etihad, have shown they can overcome even the seemingly invincible Liverpool.
At any other club, the manager would likely have been sacked following a run of five defeats or seven winless matches, conceding 19 goals. But Manchester City are still under Pep Guardiola’s guidance. Instead, he has been extended for two more years—a decision that may seem absurd, but several Premier League titles and a maiden Champions League triumph speak volumes. Still, the team's performance has visibly declined, evident in the clash against Liverpool. Although Manchester City boasted a better passing accuracy (88% vs 84%), they carelessly relinquished possession, inviting sharp counter-attacks from Liverpool. In the first half, the Manchester side managed just one off-target shot, while the Merseysiders attempted 10, four of which were on target. No matter what is said, the loss of Rodri Hernández has been pivotal, taking effect under heavy pressure.
Nottingham Forest (6) are right behind Manchester City (5), but it's not them climbing—it’s the champions’ significant drop. In the previous round, the visitors couldn't withstand Arsenal's pressure (0:3) unlike their victory over Liverpool (1:0) in September. Arsenal shot more frequently and accurately, so while Matz Sels made three saves, he conceded as many goals. Against mid-table or lower opposition, like Ipswich Town last Saturday (1:0), Nottingham Forest won but did little more.
Often after such declines, there is a breakthrough match with an abundance of goals. That's our suspicion now, especially since Manchester City's total xG significantly exceeds their actual goal tally—22 goals compared to an expected 27. We’re not necessarily predicting a win for the favourites, hence opting for a double chance. Still, expect at least four goals, as Nottingham’s defence isn’t always impenetrable, and Manchester City are currently vulnerable.
