Both teams are level on 21 points, with Uruguay currently occupying third place in the standings, while Paraguay sit fifth. Despite a six-point margin that presently secures direct qualification for the World Cup, neither side will approach this fixture lightly.
Paraguay hold a minor advantage by playing on home ground. They have recorded five wins across 14 qualifying rounds, all of which have come at home. For the visiting side, their best chance of avoiding defeat lies in keeping a clean sheet. This strategy proved effective for Peru (0:0) and Colombia (1:0), although both encounters took place back in 2023. Paraguay have edged their last four home matches by narrow scorelines—either 1:0 or 2:1.
Uruguay have been somewhat less consistent on their travels, but they do have an away win in their last seven outings. That result, surprisingly, came against Argentina (2:0), despite a prior home defeat to the same opponent (0:1) in Montevideo. Of the remaining six matches, only two ended in losses—against Ecuador (1:2) at altitude and against Peru (0:1), a side known for their defensive resilience at home.
The match will be held in Asunción, which does not pose the challenges of high altitude, so the visitors should not experience acclimatisation issues. Nevertheless, penetrating the defence of Paraguay is no easy task. Back in early 2022, Uruguay managed to do so (1:0) thanks to a moment of individual brilliance from Luis Suárez, who is no longer part of the squad. Goals are expected to be at a premium in this encounter. Both squads have near-identical defensive statistics—10 goals conceded versus 9. In terms of outcome, the greater depth and quality of the visiting squad could be the deciding factor, and they are likely to avoid defeat.