The Rome club is just beginning to find their form, while the Basque side has already hit their stride. It seems that the advantage might lie with them, doesn’t it?
AS Roma overcame their playing crisis only through drastic measures. After four rounds of Serie A, Daniele De Rossi was dismissed. The first victory, and it was over the surprising leader Udinese (3:0), was secured under the guidance of Ivan Juric. The change in management didn’t stop Artem Dovbyk from scoring for the second consecutive round. The win allowed the Italian side to jump from 16th place to 9th. Before that, the problem for the team was their finishing. In the missed win against Genoa (1:1), they had 2.19 xG, and in the respectable draw with Juventus (0:0), their attack was just too constrained: 7 (1) shots, and only two poor attempts in the second half, both off target. Against Udinese, they needed just 1.90 xG. Now, ahead of the start of the Europa League, AS Roma are no longer considered outright underdogs.
The odds for the hosts are even lower, but we still wouldn't underestimate Athletic Club just because they are playing away. Even against re-energized Roma, the team looks strong. Since the restart of La Liga, the Basque side has won all three of their matches, doing so within a tight schedule, all in a week. Most valuable, ahead of their match against the Italian side, two of these victories were away. One of them, against Las Palmas, can be considered quite distant, as they had to travel to the Canary Islands. Their average scoring rate during this period is 2.7 goals scored and 1 conceded, sufficient for the total over 2.5. Additionally, Athletic Club have yet to leave an away match goalless this season. Extending this streak to last season, it’s already a seven-match scoring run.
Though AS Roma sometimes managed not to concede even under Daniele De Rossi, we see that such an effective attack (17.2%) as the Basque club's will break down their defence. The Italian side has also become more efficient with their chances, and Artem Dovbyk has hit form. Therefore, we expect both teams to score.
