São Paulo vs Alianza Lima: prediction & betting odds 11 Apr 2025

Even without the experienced Lucas Moura, who remains sidelined due to injury, São Paulo managed to edge past Talleres de Córdoba (1:0) in their opening group stage fixture of the Copa Libertadores. Back on home soil against Alianza Lima, the Brazilian side are expected to take control of the game — with Club Libertad sitting top of the group with a perfect record after two matches, São Paulo cannot afford to drop points.

São Paulo’s focused approach to this season’s campaign was evident during their run in the Campeonato Paulista, where they were eliminated in the semi-finals following a narrow 0:1 defeat to SE Palmeiras. In Córdoba against Talleres de Córdoba, the team showed mental resilience after a disallowed goal by Jonathan Calleri, finding the energy to secure a late winner through Alisson Becker. Over the weekend, São Paulo held Clube Atlético Mineiro to a goalless draw despite being reduced to ten men, with their head coach sent off before half-time.

Alianza Lima had to battle their way into the Copa Libertadores group stage, narrowly overcoming Deportes Tolima in the qualifying final (3:2 on aggregate), while conceding a cumulative 1.86 from xGA. At home against Club Libertad (0:1), the Peruvian side allowed six shots on target — and their upcoming trip to Brazil could reveal further defensive vulnerabilities. Following the international break, they suffered a heavy 0:3 defeat to AD Tarma in the domestic league.

São Paulo hold a clear advantage in squad quality, which is expected to show from the opening stages. The hosts are likely to disrupt  Alianza Lima’s attempts to build up play through short passing — the recommended bet is a home win with a handicap.