Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Australian Open match.
Ben Shelton is enjoying a successful tournament, again proving his high level on Grand Slam stages, especially on hard courts. The American has already reached the quarter-finals and has every chance to compete for a spot in the semi-finals. Lorenzo Sonego, on the other hand, has reached a Grand Slam quarter-final for the first time, which is a significant achievement for the Italian. However, his lack of experience at this level may be a disadvantage in the upcoming match.
Ben Shelton
Shelton has won 11 of 14 Grand Slam matches since 2024. His main weapon is an incredibly powerful serve, with a record speed of 246 km/h. At the 2025 Australian Open, Ben has already ousted strong opponents such as Lorenzo Musetti (ranked 15), Brandon Nakashima (35), and Carreno Busta. His Round of 16 match against Gael Monfils ended prematurely due to the Frenchman's injury, but until then Shelton was playing confidently and won 81% of points on his first serve. It's worth noting that he has 73 victories in 113 matches on hard courts, demonstrating his expertise on this surface.
Lorenzo Sonego
The Italian is not going through his best period on hard courts, with just 36 wins in 87 games over the last five years. At this tournament, Sonego benefited from a favourable draw, not facing any seeded players. Nevertheless, he has encountered several difficulties, winning only in five sets against Joao Fonseca (ranked 112) and in four against Learner Tien (121). Furthermore, Sonego performs poorly against top-20 players, losing 9 of 10 matches. He faced Shelton on hard courts once in 2022 and lost (6:7, 6:3, 5:7).
Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction
Shelton surpasses Sonego in all key areas: serve power, attacking style, and the ability to dominate on hard courts. It will be extremely difficult for the Italian to compete, considering his struggles against top-20 players. Additionally, Sonego has spent more time overcoming his opponents, which may affect his physical preparedness. Therefore, we are backing a win for Ben Shelton with a handicap.
