Odds overview
Stuttgart are favourites: a Stuttgart win is 1.77, compared with 4.15 for Hamburg and 4.10 for the draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.75. In the main handicap market, Stuttgart (0) at 1.35 is shorter than Hamburg (0) at 2.95.
Why Stuttgart are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: a Stuttgart win is available at 1.77, the draw at 4.10 and a Hamburg win at 4.15.
- The visitors have maintained a high level of overall chance creation: with 4.61 xG in league matches, Stuttgart are joint second in the pre-match Bundesliga standings for this metric.
- Hamburg have been vulnerable defensively at the start of the season, conceding an average of 3 goals per match. That makes the favourites' attacking task considerably easier.
Form and Line-up Hamburg
In the previous Bundesliga round, Hamburg won 3:2 away to Hoffenheim, generating 1.59 xG. The turning point came in the second half: they scored the two decisive goals after the 65th minute, by which time they had a numerical advantage.
Across their first five matches, Hamburg's attack has not been particularly productive: averaging 1 goal per game, they are joint third from bottom in the league rankings.
- Hamburg committed more than 10.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Hamburg were caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Hamburg had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
Probable Hamburg line-up (3-4-2-1): Daniel Heuer Fernandes, Louis Lemke, Warmed Omari, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Nicolás Capaldo, Nicolai Remberg, Albert Sambi Lokonga, David Møller Wolfe, Fábio Vieira, Martin Adeline, Yussuf Poulsen
Form and Line-up Stuttgart
Stuttgart come into this match after an emphatic away win in the UEFA Champions League, having beaten Slovan Bratislava 3:0 on 14 October. However, the short three-day gap between matches could affect their freshness as they return to domestic action.
In the Bundesliga, Stuttgart sit 11th with 6 points after five rounds, a goal difference of 8:9 and an average of 1.6 goals scored per match.
- More than 2.5 goals were scored in 9 of Stuttgart's last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Stuttgart's last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- The teams combined for more than 9.5 shots on target in Stuttgart's last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
Probable Stuttgart line-up (4-2-3-1): Fabian Bredlow, Ramon Hendriks, Josha Vagnoman, Finn Jeltsch, Jeff Chabot, Angelo Stiller, Chris Führich, Bilal El Khannouss, Grischa Prömel, Deniz Undav, Dženan Pejčinović
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Stuttgart a 53.8% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.77 and fair odds of 1.86. Hamburg have a 23.0% chance (4.15 and 4.36), while the draw has a 23.2% chance (4.10 and 4.30).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg win | 4.15 | 4.36 | 23.0% |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.30 | 23.2% |
| Stuttgart win | 1.77 | 1.86 | 53.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.75. At 3.5 goals, the odds are almost equal: Under 3.5 goals is 1.83 and Over 3.5 goals is 1.98.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.75 | 1.40 |
| 3.5 | 1.83 | 1.98 |
Handicap prediction
Stuttgart (-1.5) at 2.65 is markedly shorter than Hamburg (-1.5) at 6.60. At the +1.5 line, Stuttgart (+1.5) at 1.06 is favoured over Hamburg (+1.5) at 1.42; at the +1 line, Stuttgart (+1) is 1.09 compared with 1.65 for Hamburg (+1). For the zero handicap, Stuttgart (0) at 1.35 is shorter than Hamburg (0) at 2.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | -1.5 | 2.65 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
| 5.80 | -1 | 2.20 |
| 1.65 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 2.95 | 0 | 1.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.40 looks considerably more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.70, which requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.40 |
| No | 2.70 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Hamburg — 1 goal; Stuttgart — 2 goals.
Hamburg team total goals
For Hamburg's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.27 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.40. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.60 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 2.30, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 2.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.40 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.30 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Stuttgart team total goals
For Stuttgart's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.06 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 6.60, and Over 1.5 goals at 1.50 is shorter than Under 1.5 goals at 2.50. At the 2-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 2 goals is 1.88 and Over 2 goals is 1.87. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.50 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.88 | 2 | 1.87 |
| 1.50 | 2.5 | 2.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Robert Hartmann (Germany)
Matches — 15 (Bundesliga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.4;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 15;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 15.
