Odds overview
Stuttgart are the favourites, with a Stuttgart win at 1.77, a Hamburg win at 4.15 and a draw at 4.10. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.75. In the main handicap market, Stuttgart (0) at 1.35 is shorter than Hamburg (0) at 2.95.
Why Stuttgart are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: a Stuttgart win is available at 1.77, a draw at 4.10 and a Hamburg win at 4.15.
- The visitors continue to create a high volume of dangerous chances: with 4.61 xG in league matches, Stuttgart are joint second in the Bundesliga's pre-match rankings.
- Hamburg have been vulnerable defensively at the start of the season, conceding an average of 3 goals per match. That makes life considerably easier for the favourites' attack.
Form and Line-up Hamburg
In the previous Bundesliga round, Hamburg won 3:2 away to Hoffenheim, generating 1.59 xG. The turning point came in the second half: already playing with a numerical advantage, they scored two decisive goals after the 65th minute.
Hamburg's attack has not been particularly productive across their first five matches: averaging 1 goal per game, they are joint third from bottom in the league rankings.
- Hamburg committed more than 10.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Hamburg were caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Hamburg had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Probable Hamburg line-up (3-4-2-1): Daniel Heuer Fernandes, Louis Lemke, Warmed Omari, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Nicolás Capaldo, Nicolai Remberg, Albert Sambi Lokonga, David Møller Wolfe, Fábio Vieira, Martin Adeline, Yussuf Poulsen
Form and Line-up Stuttgart
Stuttgart come into the match after a convincing UEFA Champions League away win over Slovan Bratislava, whom they beat 3:0 on 14 October. However, the short three-day gap between matches could affect their freshness as they return to domestic league action.
Stuttgart sit 11th in the Bundesliga with 6 points from five rounds and a goal difference of 8:9, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per match.
- More than 2.5 goals were scored in 9 of Stuttgart's last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Stuttgart's last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- The teams combined for more than 9.5 shots on target in each of Stuttgart's last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
Probable Stuttgart line-up (4-2-3-1): Fabian Bredlow, Ramon Hendriks, Josha Vagnoman, Finn Jeltsch, Jeff Chabot, Angelo Stiller, Chris Führich, Bilal El Khannouss, Grischa Prömel, Deniz Undav, Dzenan Pejcinovic
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Stuttgart a 53.8% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.77 and fair odds of 1.86. Hamburg have a 23.0% chance of winning (average odds of 4.15 and fair odds of 4.36), while the draw has a 23.2% chance (4.10 and 4.30).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburg win | 4.15 | 4.36 | 23.0% |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.30 | 23.2% |
| Stuttgart win | 1.77 | 1.86 | 53.8% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.75. At the 3.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 3.5 goals is 1.83 and Over 3.5 goals is 1.98.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.75 | 1.40 |
| 3.5 | 1.83 | 1.98 |
Handicap betting
Stuttgart (-1.5) at 2.65 is much shorter than Hamburg (-1.5) at 6.60. At the +1.5 line, Stuttgart (+1.5) at 1.06 is favoured over Hamburg (+1.5) at 1.42; at the +1 line, Stuttgart (+1) is 1.09 against Hamburg (+1) at 1.65. On the zero handicap, Stuttgart (0) at 1.35 is shorter than Hamburg (0) at 2.95.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | -1.5 | 2.65 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
| 5.80 | -1 | 2.20 |
| 1.65 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 2.95 | 0 | 1.35 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.40 appears considerably more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.70, which would mean at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.40 |
| No | 2.70 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
19/20
|
11/50
|
1/4
|
| 888sport |
91/100
|
1/4
|
1/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Hamburg — 1 goal; Stuttgart — 2 goals.
Hamburg team goals total
For Hamburg's team goals total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.27 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.40. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.60 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 2.30, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 2.35.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.40 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.30 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Stuttgart team goals total
For Stuttgart's team goals total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.06 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 6.60, while Over 1.5 goals at 1.50 is shorter than Under 1.5 goals at 2.50. At the 2-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 2 goals is 1.88 and Over 2 goals is 1.87. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.50.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.50 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.88 | 2 | 1.87 |
| 1.50 | 2.5 | 2.50 |
