Odds overview
Atlético Madrid are clear favourites: an away win is available at 1.75, compared with 4.70 for a home win and 3.85 for a draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 is slightly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. The Draw No Bet odds also favour the visitors, with Atlético Madrid at 1.30 against Espanyol Barcelona at 3.25.
Why Atlético Madrid are favourites
Bookmakers favour Atlético Madrid to win: the visitors are quoted at 1.75, while Espanyol Barcelona are available at 4.70 and the draw at 3.85.
- The teams are separated by 11 points and 10 places in the La Liga table: Atlético Madrid are second with 19 points and an 18:8 goal record, while Espanyol Barcelona are 12th with 8 points and an 11:11 goal record.
- Atlético Madrid are among the league leaders in attack and defensive solidity: they average 2.25 goals per match, the third-highest figure in the league, and concede 1 goal per game, placing them joint third for fewest goals conceded.
- Atlético Madrid have lost to Espanyol Barcelona only once in their last 10 meetings.
Form and Line-up Espanyol Barcelona
In the previous round of La Liga, Espanyol Barcelona let a win against Málaga slip away in a 1:1 draw, conceding an equaliser in the 90+3rd minute after Bryan Zaragoza had opened the scoring in the 13th. It was a third successive match without a win for the Catalan side, following defeats to Rayo Vallecano (1:2) and Elche (1:3).
- All 8 of Espanyol Barcelona's La Liga matches this season have finished with Over 1.5 goals.
- Espanyol Barcelona's opponents have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in each of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- Espanyol Barcelona have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in each of their last 10 Spanish league matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Ángel Fortuño, Omar El Hilali, Clemens Riedel, Leandro Cabrera, Quilindschy Hartman, Edu Expósito, Pol Lozano, Tyrhys Dolan, Javier Hernández, Bryan Zaragoza, Roberto Fernández.
Absentees: Kike García, Jofre (both injured).
Form and Line-up Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid come into this round after a 2:1 away league win over Alavés and a successful UEFA Champions League match against Manchester United (2:0), in which Pablo Barrios scored in the 1st minute and Ademola Lookman extended the lead in the 79th after an opponent was sent off. The Colchoneros are second, having lost only once in eight rounds, with an 18:8 goal record.
- All 4 of Atlético Madrid's away matches in La Liga this season have featured Over 2.5 goals.
- Atlético Madrid have had more than 3.5 shots on target in each of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- Fewer than 5.5 yellow cards have been shown in each of Atlético Madrid's last 10 La Liga matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Jan Oblak, Marcos Llorente, Cristian Romero, Robin Le Normand, Alex Grimaldo, Johnny Cardoso, David Hancko, Giuliano Simeone, Pablo Barrios, Ademola Lookman, Jonathan David.
Absentees: Koke (doubtful).
Teams' chances
Atlético Madrid are quoted at 1.75 to win, with fair odds of 1.83 and a 54.7% probability. For the draw, the figures are 3.85, 4.02 and 24.9%; for an Espanyol Barcelona win, they are 4.70, 4.91 and 20.4%. An Atlético Madrid victory looks the most likely outcome.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol Barcelona to win | 4.70 | 4.91 | 20.4% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.02 | 24.9% |
| Atlético Madrid to win | 1.75 | 1.83 | 54.7% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.00 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.82, so the market leans slightly towards a higher-scoring match. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.38 over Over 3.5 goals at 2.80.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.82 |
| 3.5 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Handicap prediction
Atlético Madrid (-1.5) at 2.85 is considered considerably more likely than Espanyol Barcelona (-1.5) at 8.50. At the +1.5 handicap, Atlético Madrid are shorter at 1.04, compared with 1.37 for Espanyol Barcelona. Atlético Madrid (-1) is quoted at 2.30 and Espanyol Barcelona (-1) at 7.30; at +1, the odds are 1.05 for Atlético Madrid and 1.63 for Espanyol Barcelona. Atlético Madrid Draw No Bet is available at 1.30 and Espanyol Barcelona Draw No Bet at 3.25.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.50 | -1.5 | 2.85 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 7.30 | -1 | 2.30 |
| 1.63 | 1 | 1.05 |
| 3.25 | 0 | 1.30 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes is available at 1.75, while No is 2.00. The shorter odds suggest the market is more likely to expect goals from both teams; No means that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.00 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/10
|
1/4
|
9/50
|
| 888sport |
21/20
|
1/4
|
1/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Espanyol Barcelona — 1 goal; Atlético Madrid — 1.5 goals.
Espanyol Barcelona team goals
For Espanyol Barcelona's team goals, Over 0.5 is available at 1.50, compared with 2.50 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.65 is favoured over Over 1 at 2.15; at 1.5, Under 1.5 is 1.30 against 3.25 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.65 | 1 | 2.15 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.25 |
Atlético Madrid team goals
For Atlético Madrid's team goals, Over 0.5 is quoted at 1.11 against 5.10 for Under 0.5, and Over 1 at 1.23 against 3.70 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is 1.75 and Under 1.5 is 2.00; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.50 is favoured over Over 2 at 2.55.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
| 3.70 | 1 | 1.23 |
| 2.00 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.50 | 2 | 2.55 |
