Odds overview
Atlético Madrid are clear favourites: an Atlético Madrid win is available at 1.75, compared with 4.70 for Espanyol Barcelona and 3.85 for a draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 is slightly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. The Draw No Bet (0) odds also favour the visitors: Atlético Madrid are at 1.30 and Espanyol Barcelona at 3.25.
Why Atlético Madrid are favourites
Bookmakers consider Atlético Madrid the likely winners: the visitors are available at 1.75, Espanyol Barcelona at 4.70 and the draw at 3.85.
- The teams are separated by 11 points and 10 places in the La Liga table: Atlético Madrid are second with 19 points and a goal difference of 18:8, while Espanyol Barcelona are 12th with 8 points and a goal difference of 11:11.
- Atlético Madrid stand out in attack and defensive solidity: they score an average of 2.25 goals per match, the third-highest figure in the league, and concede 1 per game, placing them joint-third for the fewest goals conceded.
- Atlético Madrid have lost to Espanyol Barcelona only once in their last 10 meetings.
Form and Line-up Espanyol Barcelona
In the previous La Liga round, Espanyol Barcelona let victory slip away against Málaga (1:1), conceding an equaliser in the 90+3rd minute after Bryan Zaragoza had opened the scoring in the 13th. It was the Catalans' third consecutive match without a win, following defeats to Rayo Vallecano (1:2) and Elche (1:3).
- All 8 of Espanyol Barcelona's La Liga matches this season have finished with Over 1.5 goals.
- Espanyol Barcelona's opponents have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in each of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- Espanyol Barcelona have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in each of their last 10 La Liga matches.
Probable Espanyol Barcelona line-up (4-2-3-1): Ángel Fortuño, Omar El Hilali, Clemens Riedel, Leandro Cabrera, Quilindschy Hartman, Edu Expósito, Pol Lozano, Tyrhys Dolan, Javier Hernández, Bryan Zaragoza, Roberto Fernández.
Absentees: Kike García, Jofre (both injured).
Form and Line-up Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid come into this round after an away league win over Alavés (2:1) and a successful UEFA Champions League match against Manchester United (2:0). Pablo Barrios scored in the 1st minute and Ademola Lookman doubled the lead in the 79th after an opponent was sent off. Atlético Madrid are second, having lost only once in eight rounds, with an 18:8 goal difference.
- Over 2.5 goals have been scored in all 4 of Atlético Madrid's away La Liga matches this season.
- Atlético Madrid have registered more than 3.5 shots on target in each of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- Fewer than 5.5 yellow cards have been shown in each of Atlético Madrid's last 10 La Liga matches.
Probable Atlético Madrid line-up (4-2-3-1): Jan Oblak, Marcos Llorente, Cristian Romero, Robin Le Normand, Alex Grimaldo, Johnny Cardoso, David Hancko, Giuliano Simeone, Pablo Barrios, Ademola Lookman, Jonathan David.
Absentees: Koke (doubtful).
The teams' chances
Atlético Madrid are quoted at 1.75 to win, with fair odds of 1.83 and a 54.7% probability. The figures for a draw are 3.85, 4.02 and 24.9%; for an Espanyol Barcelona win, they are 4.70, 4.91 and 20.4%. An Atlético Madrid win is the most likely outcome.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol Barcelona to win | 4.70 | 4.91 | 20.4% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.02 | 24.9% |
| Atlético Madrid to win | 1.75 | 1.83 | 54.7% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.00 and Over 2.5 at 1.82, so the market leans slightly towards a higher-scoring match. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.38 is favoured over Over 3.5 at 2.80.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.82 |
| 3.5 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Handicap prediction
Atlético Madrid (-1.5) at 2.85 is considered considerably more likely than Espanyol Barcelona (-1.5) at 8.50. At the +1.5 handicap line, Atlético Madrid (+1.5) have shorter odds of 1.04 than Espanyol Barcelona (+1.5) at 1.37. Atlético Madrid (-1) are at 2.30 and Espanyol Barcelona (-1) at 7.30; at the +1 line, Atlético Madrid (+1) are at 1.05 and Espanyol Barcelona (+1) at 1.63. Atlético Madrid Draw No Bet (0) is available at 1.30 and Espanyol Barcelona Draw No Bet (0) at 3.25.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.50 | -1.5 | 2.85 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 7.30 | -1 | 2.30 |
| 1.63 | 1 | 1.05 |
| 3.25 | 0 | 1.30 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.75, while Both teams to score — No is at 2.00. The shorter odds suggest that the market leans towards both teams scoring; the No option means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.00 |
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 1 goal for Espanyol Barcelona and 1.5 goals for Atlético Madrid.
Espanyol Barcelona team total goals
For Espanyol Barcelona's team total, Over 0.5 goals is at 1.50 and Under 0.5 at 2.50. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.65 is favoured over Over 1 at 2.15; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is at 1.30 and Over 1.5 at 3.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.65 | 1 | 2.15 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.25 |
Atlético Madrid team total goals
For Atlético Madrid's team total, Over 0.5 goals is quoted at 1.11 against 5.10 for Under 0.5, while Over 1 is at 1.23 against 3.70 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is at 1.75 and Under 1.5 at 2.00; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.50 is favoured over Over 2 at 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
| 3.70 | 1 | 1.23 |
| 2.00 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.50 | 2 | 2.55 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Alejandro Hernández (Spain)
Matches – 22 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 5.1;
Matches with a red card – 5 out of 22;
Matches with a penalty – 8 out of 22.
