Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Chelsea are favourites at 2.15, while Everton to win is around 3.20 and the draw is 3.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.18. For the handicap (0), Chelsea are shorter at 1.60 than Everton at 2.35.
Why Chelsea are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: Chelsea are 2.15 to win, compared with 3.20 for Everton and 3.70 for the draw.
• Although Everton sit above Chelsea in the table — fifth to sixth — their squad strength is more than 2.5 times lower than that of the visitors.
• Everton have beaten Chelsea in only 3 of their last 10 Premier League meetings.
• The visitors have scored considerably more goals per match in the league than the hosts — 2.5 to 1.33.
Form and Line-up Everton
Everton drew 2:2 with Hull City in their previous league match. The Merseysiders quickly surrendered a 2:1 lead in the second half. Even so, Everton's defence, led by Jordan Pickford, concede fewer than one goal per match on average (0.83), on a par with leaders Manchester City and Arsenal.
- There were no more than 11.5 corners in 8 of Everton's last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Everton had at least four shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- There were fewer than 22.5 fouls in 8 of Everton's last 10 Premier League home matches.
- There were fewer than 4.5 offsides in each of Everton's last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Everton line-up (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, James Tarkowski, Michael Keane, Jarrad Branthwaite, James Garner, Harrison Armstrong, Brennan Johnson, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish, Thierno Barry
Form and Line-up Chelsea
Chelsea thrashed Bournemouth 5:1 in the last round, with Jordan Henderson scoring twice and providing an assist. It was the Blues' biggest win of the season. Despite sitting sixth in the table, Chelsea's goalkeepers have yet to keep a clean sheet in this Premier League campaign.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 9 of Chelsea's last 10 Premier League away matches.
- There were fewer than 4.5 offsides in all 10 of Chelsea's last 10 Premier League away matches.
- There were no more than 11.5 corners in 8 of Chelsea's last 10 Premier League matches.
Probable Chelsea line-up (3-4-2-1): Emiliano Martínez, Josh Acheampong, Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill, Pedro Neto, Moisés Caicedo, Jordan Henderson, Pep Chavarría, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, João Pedro
Absentees: Reece James, Jamie Gittens (injured)
Teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Chelsea a 44.4% chance of winning, with odds of 2.15 and fair odds of 2.25. Everton have a 29.8% chance: 3.20 against fair odds of 3.35. The draw is rated at 25.8%, with odds of 3.70 and fair odds of 3.88.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton to win | 3.20 | 3.35 | 29.8% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Chelsea to win | 2.15 | 2.25 | 44.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.70 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.18. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 at 1.48 is favoured over Over 3.5 at 2.55.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.18 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.48 | 2.55 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap market, Everton (-1.5) at 5.80 have longer odds than Chelsea (-1.5) at 3.65. At the +1.5 line, Chelsea (+1.5) at 1.09 are shorter than Everton (+1.5) at 1.25; at the -1 line, Chelsea (-1) are 2.95 compared with 5.10 for Everton (-1). For the +1 handicap, Everton (+1) are 1.35 and Chelsea (+1) are 1.12, while at the zero line Everton (0) are 2.35 and Chelsea (0) are 1.60.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.80 | -1.5 | 3.65 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.09 |
| 5.10 | -1 | 2.95 |
| 1.35 | 1 | 1.12 |
| 2.35 | 0 | 1.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.57 is shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.30, the latter requiring at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.57 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Everton — 1 goal, Chelsea — 1.5 goals.
Everton team goals
For Everton's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.28 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.30, and Over 1 at 1.58 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.30. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.55, while Over 1.5 is 2.35.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.30 | 1 | 1.58 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Chelsea team goals
For Chelsea's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.15 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.50, and Over 1 at 1.30 is shorter than Under 1 at 3.20. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 at 1.82 and Over 1.5 at 1.92. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.40 is shorter than Over 2 at 2.75.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.20 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.92 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.75 |
