Kecmanovic has already played a match here and had time to adapt to the slow surface after the rain. Rinderknech enters as a seed without having played a single hard-court match since spring. The difference in match sharpness is the main talking point tonight.
Kecmanovic comes into this match already warmed up. In the first round, he beat Michael Zheng in three sets (6:4, 4:6, 7:6) — in a deciding-set tie-break, in the rain and with constant interruptions. Such a match is draining, but it provides the key thing: an understanding of the bounce and pace of this particular court. The Serbian operates from the baseline and relies on depth and consistency rather than first-strike tennis.
Rinderknech takes to the court after a long break from hard courts. His last official match on this surface came in Miami in March. The Frenchman spent the entire summer on clay in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel, and both tournaments ended early for him. Three wins in his last nine matches — that is the form he brings to Montreal.
Rinderknech's season stands at 14 wins and 18 losses, with five wins and seven defeats on hard courts. He has not won any of his three quarter-finals. His ranking is sustained by last year's results rather than his current form. The Frenchman's game is built entirely around his serve: he has won 86.4% of his service games and hit 13.94% aces this season. He offers no pressure on return — converting just 14.05% of break points. Kecmanovic's corresponding figures are 18.87%, and he has won 34.65% of return points. Against an opponent who has not served on hard courts for four months and will be searching for his first-serve percentage, that is a decisive edge.
The head-to-head record favours the Frenchman, but their last meeting came on clay in Geneva in May 2025 — where Rinderknech feels far more comfortable. On Montreal's hard courts, the question will be different: who can maintain greater depth for longer and make fewer errors in rallies. Kecmanovic is match-sharp; his opponent is not. The bookmaker makes it almost even where a player with regular match practice faces one returning to hard courts after a break. We are backing the Serbian player to win.
