Odds overview
Atletico Madrid are clear favourites: the home win is available at 1.42, while the draw is 4.70 and the away win is 7.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.13. In the handicap market, Osasuna (+1.5) at 1.70 looks preferable to Atletico Madrid (-1.5) at 2.15.
Why Atletico Madrid are favourites for the match
Bookmakers offer odds of 1.42 on an Atletico Madrid win, 4.70 on the draw and 7.60 on an Osasuna victory.
• Ahead of Matchday 6, Atletico are fourth in the table with 10 points, while Osasuna are 11th with 7 points.
• Osasuna head into the away match after two consecutive defeats — to Alaves (2:5) and Espanyol (0:2).
• However, this will already be Madrid's third match in eight days, including an away trip to Liverpool in the Champions League, which raises doubts about their freshness and ability to thrash their opponents.
Form and Line-up Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid thrashed Real Sociedad 3:0 away in La Liga, converting their chances confidently (1.83 xG).
In Atletico Madrid's home matches, opponents have been comparatively cautious and have not committed more than 13 fouls per game in their last 10 La Liga matches, while 8 of those 10 games featured at least eight shots on target.
- Atletico Madrid have registered at least four shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- Atletico Madrid's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in all of their last 10 home Spanish league matches.
- Atletico Madrid have taken at least five corners in 8 of their last 10 home La Liga games.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Jan Oblak, Cristian Romero, Marc Pubill, David Hancko, Alex Grimaldo, Giuliano Simeone, Morten Hjulmand, Marcos Llorente, Alex Baena, Ademola Lookman, Lee Kang-in
Absentees: Pablo Barrios (injured), Julian Alvarez (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Osasuna
The Pamplona club have faced a series of muscular injuries among their players, significantly limiting their options in midfield and on the left flank.
Before the match, Osasuna rank third from bottom for opponents' xG (1.10), while maintaining a fairly restrained structure without excessive aggression in the opposition penalty area.
- Osasuna have had no more than 13 shots in all of their last 10 away La Liga matches.
- Osasuna have committed at least 12 fouls in 8 of their last 10 away La Liga games.
- Osasuna have taken four or fewer corners in 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-2-2): Sergio Herrera, Inigo Arguibide, Alejandro Catena, Flavien-Enzo Boyomo, Abel Bretones, Iker Munoz, Jon Moncayola, Ruben Garcia, Enrique Barja, Raul Garcia, Ante Budimir
Absentees: Moi Gomez, Jorge Herrando, Aimar Oroz (injured)
Team chances
The home win is available at 1.45; the fair odds are 1.52, with a probability of 65.7%. The draw at 4.60 has fair odds of 4.83 and a probability of 20.7%, while the away win at 7.00 has fair odds of 7.35 and a probability of 13.6%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid win | 1.45 | 1.52 | 65.7% |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.83 | 20.7% |
| Osasuna win | 7.00 | 7.35 | 13.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. At 3.5, Under 3.5 goals at 1.43 is favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 3.5 | 1.43 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Osasuna (+1.5) at 1.65 is shorter than Atletico Madrid (-1.5) at 2.20. At the 1 line, Atletico Madrid (-1) is available at 1.70 and Osasuna (+1) at 2.13. The Draw No Bet market leans much more strongly towards the home side: Atletico Madrid are 1.13 and Osasuna 4.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.65 | |
| 1.70 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.13 | |
| 1.13 | 0 | 4.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
The odds are close: Both teams to score - No is 1.85, while Both teams to score - Yes is 1.90. The market is slightly more likely to expect at least one team not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.90 |
| No | 1.85 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Atletico Madrid — 2 goals, Osasuna — 0.5 goals.
Atletico Madrid team total
Atletico Madrid team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.05 is significantly shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 7.20. At the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 goals is 1.53 versus Under 1.5 goals at 2.40; at 2, Under 2 goals is 1.78 and Over 2 goals is 1.98. For the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.45 is preferred, while Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.20 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.40 | 1.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.78 | 2 | 1.98 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.65 |
Osasuna team total
Osasuna team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.72 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.05. At the 1 line, Under 1 goal is 1.40 versus Over 1 goal at 2.75, while at 1.5, Under 1.5 goals is 1.20 versus Over 1.5 goals at 3.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.05 | 0.5 | 1.72 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 2.75 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 3.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Francisco Hernandez (Spain)
Matches — 21 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 2.7;
Matches with red cards — 3 of 21;
Matches with penalties — 6 of 21.
