Odds overview
Milan are favourites: a home win is available at 2.13, while the draw and an away win are quoted at 3.55 and 3.40. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 is clearly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. In the handicap markets, the shortest odds are for Milan (+1.5) — 1.08 — and Benfica (+1.5) — 1.25, while Milan (-1.5) and Benfica (-1.5) are offered at around 3.50 and 6.00.
Why Milan are favourites for the match
Milan to win is available at 2.13, the draw at 3.55 and Benfica to win at 3.40.
• Milan come into the match unbeaten in their last five fixtures, with three wins and two draws.
• Benfica have won each of their last five matches in all competitions, including a 3:1 away win over Aarhus in the UEFA Europa League, although four of those five fixtures came in domestic competition.
Form and Line-up Milan
In their previous Serie A match, Milan drew 2:2 with Lazio, coming back in the second half thanks to Diego Moreira's brace.
Christian Pulisic's return gives them more options in attack, although he came off the bench in the last match.
- At least two goals have been scored in 9 of Milan's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Milan have scored no more than two goals in 10 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 8 of Milan's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Milan line-up (3-4-2-1): Mike Maignan, Mario Gila, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlovic, Samuel Chukwueze, Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Pervis Estupinan, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Alphadjo Cisse, Goncalo Ramos
Christian Pulisic has returned from injury and resumed playing.
Form and Line-up Benfica
The Lisbon club beat Gil Vicente 3:1 at home in their most recent Portuguese league match.
The team's away schedule is complicated by the fact that only two full days have passed between their home Primeira Liga match and the trip to Milan.
- At least three goals have been scored in 9 of Benfica's last 10 home UEFA Europa League matches.
- At least 9 corners have been taken in 8 of Benfica's last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- Benfica have received no more than two yellow cards in 10 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
Probable Benfica line-up (4-2-3-1): Samuel Soares, Daniel Banjaqui, Clement Lenglet, Tomas Araujo, Samuel Dahl, Enzo Barrenechea, Leandro Barreiro, Rafa Silva, Gianluca Prestianni, Andreas Schjelderup, Vangelis Pavlidis
Alexander Bah's participation remains in doubt due to the lack of recent medical information.
Team chances
A home win at 2.13 corresponds to fair odds of 2.23 and a probability of 44.9%. The draw is available at 3.55, with fair odds of 3.71 and a probability of 26.9%, while an away win is at 3.40, with fair odds of 3.55 and a probability of 28.1%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milan win | 2.13 | 2.23 | 44.9% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.71 | 26.9% |
| Benfica win | 3.40 | 3.55 | 28.1% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.10 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.73, so the market rates a high-scoring scenario more highly. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.45 is shorter than Over 3.5 goals at 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Milan (-1.5) is available at 3.50 and Benfica (-1.5) at 6.00. At the +1.5 handicap line, the odds are 1.08 for Milan (+1.5) and 1.25 for Benfica (+1.5). For the -1 handicap, Milan (-1) is available at 2.85 and Benfica (-1) at 5.30; for the +1 handicap, the odds are 1.11 and 1.37 respectively. On the zero line, Milan Draw No Bet at 1.55 is shorter than Benfica Draw No Bet at 2.45.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.50 | -1.5 | 6.00 |
| 1.08 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.85 | -1 | 5.30 |
| 1.11 | 1 | 1.37 |
| 1.55 | 0 | 2.45 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.60, while Both teams to score - No is at 2.25: the market is more likely to expect goals from both teams than a scenario in which at least one fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
57/100
|
| William Hill |
9/25
|
3/10
|
13/20
|
| 888sport |
9/25
|
3/10
|
61/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Milan — 1.5 goals, Benfica — 1 goal.
Milan team total
Milan team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 4.30 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.16; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 is available at 3.05 and Over 1 at 1.32. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost identical: Under 1.5 at 1.82 and Over 1.5 at 1.93. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 1.38 and Over 2 at 2.80.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.05 | 1 | 1.32 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| 1.38 | 2 | 2.80 |
Benfica team total
Benfica team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 3.00 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.33. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is at 2.15 and Over 1 at 1.67; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.50 and Over 1.5 at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.33 |
| 2.15 | 1 | 1.67 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Who will referee the match
Jarred Gillett (England)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2023/24 - 2024/25);
Fouls per match on average – 26;
Yellow cards per match on average (including second yellows) – 6;
Matches with red cards – 2 out of 6;
Matches with penalties – 4 out of 6.
