The draw in Montreal is wide open: Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are not here, so a place in the quarter-finals comes at a very high price for both players. Neither Tien nor Paul will give up a game without a fight. Neither is capable of finishing matches quickly.
Tien reached the 12th seed not because of his serve. The 20-year-old left-hander thrives on return and in long rallies: he keeps the ball in play, changes its height and forces his opponent to hit one more shot. That style leaves little room for short sets. He outlasted Mariano Navone in the Geneva final (3:6, 6:3, 7:5), then beat Gael Monfils in Montreal (6:3, 0:6, 6:3) — 24 games.
Paul has won plenty in 2026, but not easily. His record is 32-13, and he won the Houston title through a deciding set against Roman Burruchaga (6:1, 3:6, 7:5). In Washington, the American lost to Kamil Majchrzak (5:7, 6:7) — two sets, both decided by fine margins. In Montreal, he beat Valentin Royer (6:4, 7:6) and played 23 games against a player who has never reached the top 50.
Then style comes into play. Neither Tien nor Paul has a serve that can win a game with one shot. Both move superbly, both attack their opponents' serves and both are ready to extend a point to the very end. With that combination, sets rarely finish 6:2.
Their head-to-head meeting confirms this. They played three sets in the Delray Beach semi-final in February (4:6, 6:4, 6:3) — 29 games. Neither has changed their style since then, and the surface in Montreal is no quicker than the one in Florida.
The 0 in the second set against Monfils may be a concern. But that was a burst from the Frenchman, not a systemic failure from Tien: he controlled play in the first and third sets and gave up only six games. Treating that figure as a sign of a quick match would be a mistake.
Paul is higher in the rankings, more experienced and marginally stronger in terms of quality. That is precisely why he will not blow Tien off the court: to beat such a strong returner, he will have to work for every game on serve. The match will either go to three sets or feature two long sets with a tie-break. Both scenarios clear the total.
