The Key Storylines in the Final Stretch of the Season Across the Top Leagues
In the 2025/26 season, the race is still alive heading into the final round in most of Europe’s top leagues. In England, Arsenal are fighting Manchester City for the title, while the once formidable West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur are trying to avoid being the side that drops into the Championship. In both cases, just two points separate the teams. In Spain, the picture is even tighter, with only six points between ninth and 19th place with two rounds remaining.
Who will win the 2025/26 Premier League?
We take a closer look at these and other storylines from Europe’s leading leagues in this article.
Arsenal Risk Letting the Title Slip Again, While Tottenham Hotspur Could Drop into the Championship
With two rounds to go in the Premier League, there are at least two major storylines still to be settled: who will be crowned champions, and who will finish third from bottom and join Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley in the Championship.
Back in the winter, it looked as though the title race was all but over. Arsenal were well clear at the top, playing consistent football and still in contention for a quadruple, while Manchester City were making mistake after mistake. Spring changed everything. Arsenal dropped a lot of points in the league, and their quadruple dream has been reduced to the Premier League and the Champions League. Even in Europe, the outlook is uncertain, as Paris Saint-Germain will be their opponents in the final.
The bookmakers still expect Arsenal to win the Premier League, largely because of their two point lead.
Arsenal’s remaining Premier League fixtures
-
Arsenal vs Burnley, 18 May
-
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, 24 May
Both Premier League title contenders also have other competitions to consider. Arsenal’s Champions League final comes at the end of the month, after the domestic season has finished, but Manchester City face Chelsea in the FA Cup final right before the decisive league fixtures, with that trophy to be settled on 16 May. Only after that will Manchester City be able to focus fully on trying to catch Arsenal.
Manchester City’s remaining Premier League fixtures
-
Bournemouth vs Manchester City, 19 May
-
Manchester City vs Aston Villa, 24 May
There is still drama in the survival battle as well. Tottenham Hotspur are in crisis for the second season running, but things are even worse in the 2025/26 Premier League campaign. Not long ago, it seemed almost certain that their future next season would be in the Championship, but the London club have managed to pull themselves together and now sit two points ahead of West Ham United.
That said, their remaining schedule is far from straightforward, even though the bookmakers do not believe Tottenham Hotspur will be relegated.
Tottenham Hotspur’s remaining Premier League fixtures
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Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur, 19 May
-
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton, 24 May
Tottenham Hotspur had a great chance to give themselves breathing space, but last time out they failed to beat Leeds United at home, drawing 1:1, which has made their task of staying in the Premier League much more complicated.
West Ham United fought Arsenal right to the end in the previous round, but still lost. However, the Hammers have a kinder run of fixtures in their final two matches, as they face sides with little left to play for.
West Ham United’s remaining Premier League fixtures
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Newcastle United vs West Ham United, 17 May
-
West Ham United vs Leeds United, 24 May
The battle for Europe also remains open, although the outcome of the FA Cup has to be taken into account. If Manchester City win it, the race will suddenly become even more intense, because eighth place would then be enough to secure a spot in the Conference League. For now, the main question is whether Brighton & Hove Albion can overtake Bournemouth and get into the Europa League.
The Battle for Survival in La Liga
There is no title drama in Spain and the Champions League places are effectively settled, but the relegation fight is absolutely on fire. With two rounds remaining, even Real Sociedad in eighth cannot feel completely safe in theory. Those are purely mathematical chances, of course, but at least seven teams are still seriously fighting to avoid joining Real Oviedo in the Segunda División.
Several clubs involved in the survival scrap produced surprises in the previous round. Deportivo Alavés beat Barcelona, while Levante UD won away at Celta Vigo. The latter result did not help Levante UD all that much, though. They remain 19th, and the bookmakers still see them as the main candidate for relegation, even though they face RCD Mallorca in the next round.
What makes the final rounds especially intriguing is that some teams have to play crucial matches against direct rivals, while others will face sides with absolutely no motivation left.
Who Will Be Relegated from La Liga at the End of the 2025/26 Season
|
Position |
Team |
Points |
Odds |
|
19 |
Levante |
39 |
1/2
|
|
18 |
Mallorca |
39 |
5/2
|
|
17 |
Elche |
39 |
9/10
|
|
18 |
Alavés |
40 |
7/2
|
|
15 |
Girona |
40 |
3/2
|
The bookmakers are no longer treating the rest as serious relegation candidates. Valencia CF and Sevilla FC, who spent the entire season trying very hard to end up in the drop zone, are not even available in most markets.
Lazio Could Deny AS Roma a Champions League Place
In Italy, the biggest storyline is the battle for Champions League qualification, with three places available and five teams in contention. SSC Napoli have the best chance, as they have a small cushion and face Serie A’s main outsider, Pisa SC, in the next round. The Neapolitans can only really lose this from their own mistakes, and that is hard to believe.
Juventus should also deal with the task comfortably, with matches against ACF Fiorentina and Torino FC still to come. Yes, the latter is a derby, but the gap in quality looks far too big. There is little doubt that Juventus will get the job done, and you can back it at
1/5
, although whether you should is another question. Como 1907 have the smallest chance. They are currently sixth, but their schedule is not too difficult, with Parma Calcio 1913 and US Cremonese to come.
The main battle, though, will be between AC Milan and AS Roma. The teams are level on points, but AC Milan are above them on head to head results. Their prospects look different, too, as the Rossoneri have a very kind run in.
AC Milan’s remaining Serie A fixtures
-
Genoa vs AC Milan, 17 May
-
AC Milan vs Cagliari Calcio, 24 May
AS Roma, meanwhile, face a derby against SS Lazio in the next round. Although their opponents have nothing to play for, they will certainly do everything they can to hurt their fierce rivals and stop them from reaching the Champions League.
AS Roma’s remaining Serie A fixtures
-
AS Roma vs Lazio, 17 May
-
Hellas Verona vs AS Roma, 24 May
The fixture list has inevitably affected the bookmakers’ odds, with AC Milan considered the favourites to qualify for next season’s Champions League.
Who will finish in the Serie A 2025/26 top four?
The Bookmakers Are Underestimating TSG Hoffenheim
Germany has one round left and two storylines still alive. The first is the race for the final Champions League spot, with VfB Stuttgart, TSG Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen all in contention. The bookmakers barely believe in Bayer Leverkusen, offering odds of 17.00. They not only need to beat Hamburger away from home, but also need both of their rivals to lose at the same time.
TSG Hoffenheim are in a simpler position, as they face Borussia Mönchengladbach. Yes, it is away from home, but the hosts have nothing to play for. VfB Stuttgart, by contrast, travel to Frankfurt to face Eintracht Frankfurt, who very much need a win in the race for a Conference League place. That is why the odds look strange. The bookmakers are clearly underestimating Christian Ilzer’s side.
Who will finish in the Bundesliga 2025/26 top four?
Potential Shock in Scotland
Let us step just outside the top five leagues, because this one is worth it. For the first time in 41 years, Scotland could have a champion that is not Celtic or Rangers. Back in 1985, Aberdeen won the title. Since then, Scottish fans have not seen much variety. In truth, two generations of supporters can barely imagine a title race involving anyone other than the two Glasgow clubs.
The reality, however, is that Heart of Midlothian need a miracle to win the title. The teams have spent the whole season trying to give each other chances, but the final scenario is hardly in the favour of the current leaders from Edinburgh. Heart of Midlothian are only one point clear of Celtic, and the two sides meet in a direct showdown in Glasgow in the final round.
Who will win the Scottish Premiership?
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