What to bet on at Wimbledon 2026
Last year, Sinner won the Wimbledon title for the first time in his career, and the tournament produced no major surprises: the bookmakers’ favourites, Jannik and Alcaraz, reached the final, where the Italian came out on top in four sets.
Who will win Wimbledon 2026?
This time, Carlos is missing the grass-court major due to injury, which means the path to another trophy is open for the world No. 1. However, the situation was exactly the same at Roland Garros, and for Jannik it ended in a shock second-round exit.
Sinner’s main opponent is long matches
Since the start of the year, Sinner has already won five Masters titles, but Jannik still does not have a single Grand Slam title to his name this season. What is more, the Italian has not even reached a major final: at the Australian Open he was stopped by Djokovic, while at Roland Garros Sinner failed to get past Cerúndolo in the second round.
What those defeats have in common is that both went to five sets. In long five-set matches, Sinner runs out of energy and starts suffering from cramps, which has led to five consecutive defeats in such contests. The Italian’s body is struggling to cope with the workload, especially when unfavourable weather conditions are added to the equation. That was the case in Paris, where the extreme heat was largely what threw Jannik off his game in the second round.
Wimbledon 2026 winner odds
Player |
|||
Sinner |
11/20
|
3/5
|
11/20
|
Djokovic |
11/2
|
7/1
|
11/2
|
Zverev |
10/1
|
11/1
|
10/1
|
Fritz |
14/1
|
16/1
|
20/1
|
Shelton |
18/1
|
14/1
|
20/1
|
The huge workload has undoubtedly taken its toll as well. On clay alone, Sinner played 17 matches this season before the start of Roland Garros. After his failure in Paris, Jannik indirectly hinted that one of the reasons for his early exit was the packed schedule:
Sinner and his team have adjusted his grass-court schedule: no warm-up tournaments before the Grand Slam, only an exhibition match against Norrie, which the Italian won 6-3, 6-3. It is also worth noting that, according to weather forecasts, no abnormal heat is expected in London.
The odds on Sinner winning the title are too short to seriously consider a long-term bet. This is one of those cases where backing him to win match by match with small negative handicaps looks more profitable and less risky.
Djokovic is targeting the title, while Zverev remains vulnerable on grass
Djokovic and Zverev are expectedly among the top three Wimbledon favourites: the Serb has seven titles in London behind him, while the German has finally won his long-awaited Grand Slam, lifting the trophy at Roland Garros, and would not mind building on that success in Britain.
Djokovic turned 39 in May, and his career is nearing its end. The Serb can no longer play a lot of tournaments at a high level, nor is he particularly keen to do so. For Novak, only the majors are now the priority, and he certainly should not be written off at Grand Slam tournaments. At the start of the year, Djokovic came close to victory in Australia, but could not clear the double hurdle of Sinner and Alcaraz: in the semi-final, Novak beat Jannik in five sets, but he no longer had enough left for Carlos in the final.
At Roland Garros, the Serb was not in optimal shape, but even in those circumstances and in the heat, he produced a close five-setter against Fonseca.
It is not easy to judge how ready Djokovic is for the start of Wimbledon, as he once again skipped the pre-Grand Slam grass-court tournaments. Still, there are three factors that point, albeit indirectly, to a possible Serbian success in London:
1. Djokovic noted in an interview on the eve of Wimbledon that everything was fine:
2. In an exhibition match on the eve of the tournament, Djokovic edged out Tommy Paul in a tight contest.
3. Across the last seven Wimbledon tournaments, Novak has never gone out before the semi-finals, and the only players he has lost to there are Alcaraz and Sinner.
Last year in London, Djokovic lost to Jannik in the semi-finals, and this time they are in the top half of the draw, meaning they could meet again in the last four. The Serb does not have the toughest opponents at the start, so he should have the chance to ease his way into the tournament and find the right match rhythm.
Zverev is third on the list of favourites largely thanks to his high ranking and his recent Roland Garros title. At Wimbledon, the German has never gone beyond the fourth round, and there are no clear signs that he is ready to make a breakthrough this time.
Alexander tested himself at the grass-court tournament in Halle, where he reached the semi-finals, but there was little confidence or margin for error in his performances. In his three wins over Kopřiva, Hanfmann and Collignon, the German had problems, and he lost to the first top-level opponent he faced, Taylor Fritz.
Zverev himself does not hide the fact that Wimbledon is a tough challenge for him. In an interview before the start of the major, he seemed almost to be reassuring himself:
Last year, Zverev packed his bags at the very start of Wimbledon, losing to Arthur Rinderknech. Over the last three years, bets on his defeats at the tournament are up by 4.5 flat stakes.
Blockx — Zverev, 30 June
Fritz is the hidden favourite in the bottom half of the draw
Given Zverev’s problems at Wimbledon, it is worth paying attention to Fritz in the bottom half of the draw. Last year, the American produced his best result on these courts, reaching the semi-finals, where he lost to Alcaraz.
Fritz has been preparing specifically for the grass-court part of the season: seven wins in nine matches at warm-up tournaments, while in Stuttgart and Halle he reached the finals. A week before the major, Taylor withdrew from the tournament in Eastbourne, where he had previously played regularly and with a fair amount of success. Fritz was clearly saving his energy, having already managed to find the necessary form.
In total, the American has won 64 of his 98 career matches on grass, a more than solid win rate of 65%.
Fritz has not been lucky with the draw at the start: the American will face Draper in the first round. Jack is trying to return to the tour after injury and is working under Andy Murray.
Moreover, immediately after his comeback, Draper had already reached the semi-finals in Eastbourne, although he did not face any top-10 opponents. In a five-set format against an in-form Fritz, his chances look very slim. On top of that, even before his injury problems, Jack had never shone at Wimbledon, failing to get beyond the second round. The British player’s chances look somewhat overestimated in the bookmakers’ lines.
Fritz — Draper, 30 June
Qualifiers starting as favourites are profitable in the first round
The grass-court swing is the shortest part of the tour, so proper match practice is especially important here. Qualifying matches give players the chance to get into rhythm and adapt to the local courts. It is no coincidence that Wimbledon has shown a steady betting trend on first-round wins for qualifiers who not only came through three qualifying rounds, but also start as favourites in the first round.
There are not many such matches, so for a fuller picture we will take the last 10 tournaments.
Bets on first-round wins for qualifiers starting as favourites
Year |
Matches |
Wins |
Profit, flat stakes |
ROI |
2015 |
5 |
3 |
-0.55 |
-11% |
2016 |
5 |
5 |
3.36 |
67% |
2017 |
4 |
3 |
0.95 |
23% |
2018 |
3 |
3 |
1.22 |
40% |
2019 |
2 |
1 |
-0.39 |
-19% |
2021 |
3 |
2 |
0.15 |
5% |
2022 |
2 |
1 |
-0.3 |
-15% |
2023 |
4 |
3 |
0.94 |
23% |
2024 |
4 |
3 |
1.1 |
27% |
2025 |
2 |
2 |
0.92 |
46% |
Total |
34 |
26 |
7.4 |
21% |
It is noticeable how consistently, year after year, qualifiers who are priced as favourites in the first round of the main draw have justified that status.
This time, there is only one such match in the first-round lines: Mackenzie McDonald successfully came through three rounds of qualifying and will face Patrick Kypson in the opening round of the main draw.
McDonald has an advantage not only because he already has three qualifying rounds behind him, but also because of his greater experience on grass: 46 wins and 36 defeats across his career.
Kypson has played only six matches on grass and won two of them. On top of that, Patrick did not play a single match on the surface in his Wimbledon preparations.
Kypson — McDonald, 30 June
Wimbledon first round = bets on “Over”
Grass is the fastest surface, where serve often comes to the fore and breaks are not easy to come by. Tight sets and tie-breaks are common, while the price of every dropped service game is extremely high. It is no coincidence that even though bookmakers initially set high totals, the number of overs still remains at a high level.
Of course, blindly backing the over is not the way to go. It is better to focus on matches without a clear favourite. According to the statistics, in the first round over the last four years, in matches where the favourite was priced above 1.30, at least four sets were played in 61% of cases, meaning the standard games total was very likely to be cleared.
Based primarily on the statistics and the players’ styles, we can single out a promising first-round match for a bet on the over.
Mariano Navone — Flavio Cobolli. Navone is a typical clay-courter, which explains both the lack of an obvious favourite in the match and the low total of 35.5 games, which is unusual for grass. The Argentinian, by the way, beat Shapovalov last year, and this season he has also prepared for grass: he played in Mallorca, where he lost to Sonego in the opening round but still took the first set.
Cobolli is clearly still riding the high of reaching the Roland Garros final. Since switching to grass, the Italian has played only one match in Halle, where he lost to Tiafoe. His career record on grass is also negative: nine wins and 10 defeats. Last year at Wimbledon, he unexpectedly reached the quarter-finals, but that looked more like the exception than the rule.
Here we have two players who do not rely heavily on their serve, but are more inclined towards long rallies and do solid work on return. In this match-up, it is reasonable to expect tennis that will not be entirely grass-court in nature, with a decent number of breaks, swings in momentum and a high chance of both players taking a set.
Navone — Cobolli, 30 June
Wimbledon’s three main underachievers
Grass is a very particular surface, and even some top players do not perform at their usual level on it. Here are three players who are highly likely to leave the tournament in the early rounds.
Jakub Mensik. The talented Czech has modest career numbers on grass: seven wins and nine defeats. This year, he has already suffered a surprise opening-round defeat to Mannarino at the tournament in London.
At Wimbledon last year, Mensik achieved his best result at the tournament by reaching the third round, although both of his wins came against far from the strongest opponents.
Casper Ruud. The Norwegian has never hidden the fact that he does not have high expectations on grass. This year, he did not play any grass-court warm-up tournaments before the Grand Slam and only played an exhibition match against Shelton, which he quite predictably lost.
At Wimbledon, Ruud has gone out in the second round three years in a row and has never progressed beyond that stage in his career. Notably, Casper has lost at Wimbledon as the bookmakers’ favourite in four consecutive years. The profit from betting against Ruud over that period stands at seven flat stakes.
Joao Fonseca. The talented Brazilian is already ranked an impressive 27th at the age of 19, but he is still learning how to play on grass. Across his career, he has played only 13 matches on the surface and won just five of them.
On the way to Wimbledon, Fonseca suffered a shock defeat to Hanfmann in Halle. Last year, he came through two rounds in London, but in the third round he unexpectedly lost to Jarry.
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