In the final group stage match of this season's Conference League, APOEL have a prime opportunity to ascend into the top eight. Astana appear to have exhausted their resources in their domestic campaign's finale, so a subpar performance can be expected from the Kazakh side in Cyprus.
Since the start of November, APOEL have shown a marked improvement, securing three consecutive victories in the Conference League. They defeated Fiorentina (2:1), Molde (1:0), and Noah (3:1). Notably, their triumph over one of Serie A's frontrunners was highlighted by an expected goals tally of 1.76. APOEL have fallen behind Pafos in the Cypriot league title race, but they boast the second-best attack, alongside Omonia, with both sides netting 28 goals.
Following the conclusion of their national league, Astana drew with Vitoria Guimaraes (1:1), conceding an xG of 2.28 (6:34 in shots), and then were defeated by Chelsea (1:3). In the challenging weather conditions in Almaty, Chelsea’s reserve side proved far more threatening (0.27 against 1.19 in xG and 6:23 in shots). The coaching staff is likely to once again deploy their usual line-up in a 4-2-3-1 formation; however, Astana's away form in European competitions is troubling, with three consecutive goalless losses beginning from the Conference League qualifiers.
Astana's defence should closely monitor the APOEL duo of David Abagna and Konstantinos Laifis, who have combined for four goals in the Conference League. Following their defensive collapse against Chelsea, it seems unlikely Astana will patch all gaps, which their opponents are poised to exploit.
