Atalanta suffered an undeserved defeat in the first leg against Club Brugge (1:2), but they are clearly struggling with injuries. However, the motivation remains high – as the reigning Europa League champions, the Bergamo side cannot afford an early Champions League elimination.
In the first match, Atalanta created more chances from open play (1.05 vs 0.75 in xG), but a controversial stoppage-time penalty cost them the game. Over the weekend, Gian Piero Gasperini rested key players in a draw against Cagliari (0:0), but even in that match, Atalanta were the better side (9-3 in shots on target). At home in the Champions League, they have already dominated weaker opposition, as seen in their demolition of Sturm Graz (5:0).
The Belgian side are running out of steam. The play-off phase of the domestic league is fast approaching, and their form is dipping. After their win over Atalanta, they nearly lost to Sint-Truiden (2:2), extending their winless run away from home to four matches. Across these games, Club Brugge have conceded eight goals, highlighting their defensive frailties.
Atalanta will be fired up for the return leg, and their superior quality should prevail. A dramatic extra-time or penalty shootout cannot be ruled out, but over 90 minutes, the Italian side are expected to secure a victory.
