Both Atlético Madrid and Lille have experienced moments of brilliance and defensive frailty in this season's Champions League. It is likely that in Madrid, we will not witness an energy-intensive battle from either side: this encounter is expected to be one where both teams prioritise defence, relying on rare counter-attacks for offensive opportunities.
Against Benfica away (0:4), Atlético Madrid managed to create only 0.26 xG, failing to register a single shot on target. In that Lisbon fixture, Marcos Llorente suffered a knee injury—he is still sidelined, leaving a significant gap in the midfield. In their match against Leganés (3:1), goals from Atlético Madrid came only in the final 30 minutes, draining the energy of Alexander Sørloth and Antoine Griezmann, which likely means Julián Alvarez will lead the line on Wednesday.
In the previous Champions League round, Lille demonstrated their ability to challenge top-tier opponents. At home, the French side edged out Real Madrid (1:0), expertly maintaining their lead following Jonathan David's goal in the 45th minute. The team did not aggressively push forward, with only three shots on target, allowing just 0.96 xGA. Since September 13th, Lille have seen a total under 2.5 occur in four of their seven matches.
Injuries to Hákon Haraldsson, Tiago Santos, and Mitchel Bakker leave Lille with limited attacking options, placing their hopes on Jonathan David and Edon Zhegrova. Atlético Madrid are unlikely to take unnecessary risks, so expect a low-scoring affair in Madrid.
