In the first leg of the Copa Libertadores playoff between Atlético Mineiro and Fluminense, there were no surprises. Both teams played extremely cautiously in defence, but only the current tournament champions got lucky (1:0) — the return leg is unlikely to see an open and high-scoring affair.
Over the weekend, Atlético Mineiro ended a three-match goalless streak by defeating Red Bull Bragantino at home (3:0). Even in this match, they focused on defence, allowing just 0.61 xGA while creating 1.22 xG from open play. Since mid-August, the total under 2.5 has occurred in four out of their five home matches, and the intensity of the Copa Libertadores quarter final return leg will likely keep the game tight.
On Sunday, Fluminense essentially sacrificed their match against Botafogo (0:1) in favour of their Copa Libertadores campaign. Against the Serie A leaders, the coaching staff fielded a reserve squad, with only key players Jhon Arias, Germán Cano, and Marcelo Vieira starting. Their home win against Atlético Mineiro showed that they can handle top opponents even without veteran defender Thiago Silva—who was substituted at halftime due to an injury, but that didn't prevent them from securing the victory.
Since October 2022, only one of the six head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro and Fluminense has seen 3+ goals. The scenario of their recent encounter is likely to repeat at Atlético Mineiro's field, with very few goal-scoring opportunities expected.
