The second leg of the 2024 Copa Libertadores semi-final between River Plate (Argentina) and Atlético Mineiro (Brazil) will take place on October 30th at the Monumental Stadium in Buenos Aires. The score from the first leg is 3:0 in favor of Atlético Mineiro. River Plate vs. Atlético Mineiro: prediction and betting, odds, statistics.
Referee: Wilmar Roldán (Colombia)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024);
Yellow/red cards shown – 78;
Average yellow/red cards per match – 6.5;
Red cards shown – 6;
Fouls per match on average – 24;
Penalties – 17%.
Probable line-ups for the match River Plate vs. Atlético Mineiro
River Plate (5-3-2): Franco Armani – Paulo Díaz, Enzo Díaz, Germán Pezzella, Fabricio Bustos, Leandro González Pirez – Santiago Simón, Nicolás De La Cruz, Ignacio Fernández – Miguel Borja, Facundo Colidio.
Atlético Mineiro (3-4-3): Everson – Lyanco Vojnović, Rodrigo Battaglia, Junior Alonso – Gustavo Scarpa, Alan Franco Palma, Fausto Vera, Guilherme Arana – Hulk, Paulinho, Deyverson.
Each team's starting lineup is indicated from their last match in this tournament.
River Plate
The first encounter ended in a heavy defeat for the Argentinians with a score of 0:3. Now, to advance to the final of the tournament, Marcelo Gallardo's charges need to beat their opponent by a four-goal margin. It is worth noting that River Plate last won in the Copa Libertadores with a resounding score in May 2022. Before the defeat by the Brazilians, the club had a 10-match unbeaten streak in this tournament (8 wins and 2 draws). Also, it should be added that the team has not conceded at least three goals in 15 consecutive Copa Libertadores matches.
- Exactly two or three goals were scored in regular time in 13 out of 16 previous River Plate games in this tournament.
- The club scored the first goal in 10 out of the previous 11 Copa Libertadores games.
- The team has not lost in the second 45 minutes in the last 13 home matches in the CL (9 wins and 4 ties), conceding only two goals in the second half during this series.
Atlético Mineiro
After 11 years, the Brazilians have the chance to play in the Copa Libertadores final for the second time in history. In the first leg, the club achieved a significant advantage (3:0), and now, to progress further, even a two-goal defeat would suffice. If the Argentinians win by three goals, a penalty shoot-out will be held. It should be noted that Gabriel Milito's men won all six of their home games in the 2024 CL, but on the road, they have a 3-match winless streak (1 draw and 2 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in 7 out of the last 8 Atlético Mineiro games in the CL.
- No more than two goals were scored in 6 out of the last 8 Atlético Mineiro matches in this tournament.
- There was a draw in the first 45 minutes in 6 out of the last 8 Atlético Mineiro away games in the Copa Libertadores.
- The team did not score in the first half in 10 out of the last 11 away games in this tournament.
River Plate vs. Atlético Mineiro: Match Prediction
It seems that we are in for a Brazilian final (in the other semi-final match, Botafogo won with a score of 5:0). The club from Minas Gerais is unlikely to let a three-goal advantage slip away, while at the same time, the Argentinians are probably not resigned to a final defeat. The support of the fans, who will push their team forward from the very first minutes of the return match, has not disappeared either. I assume that Atlético Mineiro will advance to the final, but will lose in Argentina.
River Plate is much more experienced, having reached the final seven times in their history (the last time five years ago), and the loss in the first encounter can be put down to misfortune that befell the team. The Argentinians look excellent on their home field, where they have won 12 out of the previous 13 matches in this tournament (there was also a draw with compatriots from Vélez Sarsfield). It is also worth noting that in this series of matches, the club scored at least two goals 11 times. As for the Brazilians, their away performance is modest – only three victories after 90 minutes in the previous 13 CL games (7 draws and 3 losses).
My prediction is a River Plate victory with odds of
