Barcelona vs Bayern Munich: betting odds 23 Oct 2024

Following the international break, the Champions League returns with a marquee fixture between Barcelona and Bayern Munich. The Catalans haven’t beaten their German rivals in nine years, and for Vincent Kompany, this will be his first encounter against a top European club. With numerous intriguing storylines, this is one match not to miss.

Under Hansi Flick, Barcelona are steadily becoming a powerhouse, scoring an average of 3.3 goals per match in the league. The main attacking threat is, unsurprisingly, Robert Lewandowski. In La Liga, Robert has already netted 12 goals, twice as many as Kylian Mbappé, and four more than Bayern’s key striker Harry Kane. Their head-to-head could steal the spotlight this round.

Barcelona’s Last 5 Matches

Robert Lewandowski comes into the game in high spirits after scoring twice against Sevilla. However, the main highlight leading into this fixture is the return of Pablo Gavi. The 20-year-old midfielder, deemed one of Barcelona's brightest talents, hasn't played for almost a year due to a cruciate ligament injury. He played 8 minutes against Sevilla, replacing his friend Pedro López.

Gavi is likely to feature against Bayern Munich too, possibly for more than eight minutes. However, the joint record of Pedri and Gavi in the Champions League is not impressive: five losses and one draw. Barcelona’s longer unpleasant streak with Bayern Munich includes just one win and one draw in ten matches, with the last five games ending in a cumulative 2:19 scoreline. This is a genuine opportunity to change that narrative, with all top players available, Iñaki Peña adequately replacing Marc-André ter Stegen, and Hansi Flick’s system functioning without a hitch: against AS Monaco, they played a man down from the 10th minute, while they defeated Osasuna with a mostly reserve lineup.

Like Barcelona, Bayern Munich started the season with a new head coach — although a more modest one. Initially, Vincent Kompany looked quite promising with six wins at the start and an incredible 9:2 against Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League, setting a record for goals by one team in a tournament match. However, now the German superpower looks like a stumbling giant, with two draws and a loss in their last five matches over the past month.

Their most telling game was against Aston Villa, who prevented the Germans from capitalising on their chances and punished them on the counter. Notably, this was the first game since March where Bayern did not score. It’s hard to imagine they won't score at least once in two consecutive Champions League games.

Bayern Munich’s Last 5 Matches

Travelling to the Catalan capital, Bayern Munich enter as Barcelona’s historical nemesis in the Champions League — even Lionel Messi seldom found joy against Manuel Neuer, and the team consistently conceded. Interestingly, in the last 10 encounters between these teams, both sides scored only twice, and the total over 2.5 only failed twice.

Meeting former teams — for both Hanci Flick and Robert Lewandowski—adds layers to what is already a fixture brimming with European football history, contrasting philosophies, and major stakes. The intrigue is heightened by the memory of Flick’s last game, that unforgettable 8:2 during the COVID season, which the Catalans will never forget. Now, the former nemesis guides the team forward, with Flick appearing more solid than Kompany. Sure, the past haunts Barcelona fans, but another crushing defeat seems improbable this season.

Both teams are focused on possession, offensive dominance, and decisive victories — Flick and Kompany share similar tactics and player profiles, ensuring a high-quality spectacle. A humble affair is unlikely — both clubs need points after recent setbacks, neither enjoys playing a secondary role, and the six-match winning streak by the Germans adds more spice. Furthermore, a defeat for Barcelona would result in their second-longest losing streak against a single club, akin to their run against Real Madrid from 1962 to 1965.

While Bayern don’t appear as formidable this season, despite four commanding victories, the prediction is that Barcelona will not lose, and the match promises to be an enthralling contest.