The Matchday 4 World Cup 2026 qualifier between Finland and Poland will take place on June 10 at the Olympic Stadium in Helsinki. Finland vs. Poland: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Finland
In the last round, Finland suffered a 0-2 home defeat to the Netherlands. This was the Finns' first loss in the current qualifying cycle after a win over Malta (1-0) and a draw with Lithuania (2-2). Despite the setback, Jakob Friis's team retained second place in Group G. However, Finland has the worst defensive record in the group, having conceded four goals.
- The team has scored in 5 of their last 7 World Cup qualifying matches.
- At home in this tournament, Finland has failed to win 5 of their last 6 matches (2 draws, 3 losses).
- Finland has conceded at least one goal in 9 of their last 11 home World Cup qualifying games.
Predicted lineup for Finland (4-4-2)
Lukáš Hrádecký – Jere Uronen, Arttu Hoskonen, Miro Tenho, Matti Peltola – Robin Lod, Kaan Kairinen, Robert Ivanov, Nikolai Alho – Joel Pohjanpalo, Oliver Antman.
Poland
In their previous two matches of this qualifying cycle, Poland defeated Lithuania (1-0) and Malta (2-0). The team skipped the last round, playing a friendly against Moldova, which they won 2-0. Notably, Poland has won 6 of their last 7 World Cup qualifying matches (1 loss) and kept a clean sheet in five of those games. In Group G, Michał Probierz's team holds the top spot, leading their closest rival by two points.
- The team's scoring streak in World Cup qualifying extends to 16 matches.
- Away in this tournament, Poland has avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches (6 wins, 2 draws).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Poland's last 6 away World Cup qualifying matches.
Predicted lineup for Poland (4-4-2)
Marcin Bułka – Jakub Kiwior, Jan Bednarek, Mateusz Skrzypczak, Matty Cash – Jakub Moder, Nicola Zalewski, Sebastian Szymański, Bartosz Slisz – Adam Buksa, Kamil Grosicki.
Forward Robert Lewandowski has declined a call-up to the national team due to a conflict with the head coach.
Referee
João Pinheiro (Portugal)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 37;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.8;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 23%.
Match Prediction: Finland vs. Poland
Finland had favorable opponents in their first two rounds, yet struggled against Malta and Lithuania. Facing a strong opponent resulted in a loss, and I believe Finland will find it challenging against Poland as well. In their last 6 home World Cup qualifying matches, Finland only managed to beat Kazakhstan. While they kept a clean sheet against Kazakhstan, in other matches during this period, the team conceded at least two goals.
Poland has shown strong results even in away World Cup qualifiers, avoiding defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches, with 6 victories. Only once in this period did the team fail to score, and in 7 matches, they scored at least twice. I think Poland will capitalize on Finland's defensive issues and achieve a favorable outcome. My prediction: Poland will not lose and Total Over 1.5 goals
