Towards the end of 2024, Fiorentina experienced a sharp decline in results, while Napoli continue to pressure their rivals in the title race. This crucial head-to-head clash between two top-five teams carries significant league implications.
In the latter half of December, Fiorentina failed to secure a win in four matches, facing defeats against Bologna (0:1) and Udinese (1:2). Against Juventus (2:2), they managed to equalise in the dying moments, but based on chances, the three points should have gone to Turin (11-15 in shots). Fiorentina produced just 4.14 xG in four December Serie A games—the third worst in the competition. Their flair has disappeared, and opponents are capitalising on it.
Last month, Napoli claimed four victories in five matches, drawing level on points with leaders Atalanta (both on 41). At home against Venezia (1:0), they weren't fazed by Romelu Lukaku's missed penalty, as Giacomo Raspadori came off the bench to seal the win against the underdog (1.97 vs 0.21 in xG and 25–4 in shots). In December, Napoli generated 8.73 expected goals and allowed 3.34 xGA—both metrics rank in the competition's top four for that period.
It seems unlikely that Fiorentina will break their poor run against Napoli. We recommend backing a win for Napoli with a handicap.
