Should Atalanta drop points, Napoli have the opportunity to reclaim the top spot in the league before Christmas. Their opponents, Genoa, are not the easiest to overcome, as they remain precariously close to the relegation zone. However, they are unlikely to stand in the way of one of the title contenders on their home turf.
Heading into matchday 17, Genoa have notched a modest tally of goals (13)—only Lecce have scored fewer (10). Their frailty in the opponent's half is evident in advanced metrics, with their xG at just 15.43, the third lowest in the league. Against AC Milan (0:0), they were fortunate to face an experimental AC Milan’s lineup, managing to withstand an assault without conceding, despite allowing a 1.21 xGA and 22 shots.
Antonio Conte has fortified Napoli's defence, with the team now second in the league for expected goals conceded (14.38). Their visit to Udinese (3:1) showcased their resilience, overturning the game after the break with a commanding display (8-0 in shots). In Genoa, an early goal should suffice for them to clinch a narrow victory.
In their last five Serie A games, both Genoa and Napoli have each had just one match surpassing the total over 2.5. We believe a total under will be the best option for this match.
