Germany vs Italy: betting odds 23 Mar 2025

The second leg of the 2024/25 Nations League quarter-final between Germany and Italy will take place on March 23 at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund. The first match ended 2-1 in favor of Germany. Germany vs. Italy: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Germany

Julian Nagelsmann's team conceded an early goal in the first match but turned the game around after the break to win 2-1. To advance to the semi-finals, Germany only needs to avoid defeat in the return leg. The team is currently on an eight-match unbeaten run in this tournament (5 wins, 3 draws), having scored in every game during this period.

• At home, the team has won 4 of their last 5 Nations League matches (1 loss).
• In 6 of their last 7 home games in the Nations League, Germany has not conceded more than one goal.
• At least three goals have been scored in 6 of Germany's last 8 matches in this tournament.

Predicted lineup for Germany (3-5-2)

Oliver Baumann – Antonio Rüdiger, David Raum, Jonathan Tah – Joshua Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, Nadiem Amiri, Pascal Groß, Leon Goretzka – Leroy Sané, Jonathan Burkardt.

Midfielder Florian Wirtz and forward Niclas Füllkrug are injured.

Italy

The defeat in the last match was Italy's second consecutive loss in the Nations League. Notably, the team had never lost two matches in a row in this tournament before. To reach their third Nations League semi-final, Italy must win the return leg by at least two goals. The team is on a five-match winning streak away in the Nations League, but 3 of those victories were by a one-goal margin. A similar outcome would lead to extra time.

• Both teams scored in 8 of Italy's last 9 Nations League matches.
• In 5 of their last 6 away games in this tournament, the team scored at least two goals.
• Italy has not conceded more than one goal in 10 of their last 12 away Nations League matches.

Predicted lineup for Italy (4-3-3)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Destiny Udogie – Nicolò Barella, Nicolò Rovella, Sandro Tonali – Moise Kean, Giacomo Raspadori, Matteo Politano.

Defenders Federico Dimarco, Riccardo Calafiori and forward Mateo Retegui will miss the match due to injuries.

Referee

Szymon Marciniak (Poland)

Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 26;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 21;

Penalties – 38%.

Match Prediction: Germany vs. Italy

The outcome of the relatively balanced first match was decided by Italian defensive errors. Once renowned for their solid defense, the Italians now allow too much at the back. Luciano Spalletti's team has only one clean sheet in this Nations League edition, a record shared with teams like San Marino, Andorra, and Liechtenstein. In the return leg, Italy will be forced to open up and attack.

Germany has scored in all 7 of their Nations League 2024/25 matches, netting at least twice in 5 of them. At home, the team is confident, losing only once (5 wins, 5 draws). In their last five home matches in the Nations League, Germany has scored 18 goals, including a 5-2 victory over Italy.

My prediction: Germany will not lose and Total over 1.5 goals