Germany vs Portugal: prediction & betting odds 4 June 2025

The 2024/25 Nations League semifinal between Germany and Portugal will be held on June 4 at the Allianz Arena in Munich. Germany vs. Portugal: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Germany

Germany kicked off their first Nations League playoff campaign against Italy. After defeating their opponents 2-1 away, Julian Nagelsmann's team scored three goals in the first half of the return leg but eventually settled for a 3-3 draw. Thus, Germany remains unbeaten in this tournament, with five wins and three draws. Their scoring streak in the Nations League now spans nine matches. Additionally, the team leads the 2024/25 Nations League in scoring with 23 goals.


  • Germany has scored at least twice in 7 of their last 9 matches in this tournament.
  • At home, the team has avoided defeat in 11 of their last 12 Nations League games (5 wins, 6 draws).
  • In 6 of their last 8 home Nations League matches, Germany has conceded no more than one goal.

Predicted lineup for Germany (3-5-2)

Marc-André ter Stegen – Waldemar Anton, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Jonathan Tah – Joshua Kimmich, Serge Gnabry, Florian Wirtz, Pascal Groß, Leon Goretzka – Leroy Sané, Nick Woltemade.


Due to injuries, defenders Nico Schlotterbeck, Antonio Rüdiger, and midfielder Jamal Musiala are not included in the squad, while forward Kai Havertz needs to regain form. However, goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen, who has recovered from a serious injury, received a call-up. There was also a squad change with Angelo Stiller, Jan Bisseck, and Nadiem Amiri replaced by Thilo Kehrer.

Portugal

Roberto Martinez's team had a tougher time in the previous round than the Germans. In Denmark, Portugal lost 0-1, but they managed to secure the necessary advantage in the return leg (3-2, with extra time 2-0). Notably, the defeat to the Scandinavians is Portugal's only loss in the 2024/25 Nations League (5 wins and 2 draws in regular time), although they conceded in 7 matches during this period. This is the first time Portugal has reached the Nations League semifinals since the 2018/19 season when they won the tournament.


  • Both teams scored in 6 of Portugal's last 8 Nations League matches.
  • The team has not won in 5 of their last 7 away Nations League games (3 draws, 2 losses).
  • In 7 of their previous away matches in this tournament, Portugal has not conceded more than one goal.

Predicted lineup for Portugal (3-4-3)

Diogo Costa – Nuno Mendes, Ruben Dias, Diogo Dalot – Vitinha, João Neves, Bruno Fernandes, João Félix – Rafael Leão, Cristiano Ronaldo, Pedro Neto.


Defenders Tomás Araújo and João Cancelo are unavailable due to injuries.

Referee

Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)


Matches – 14 (International matches, 2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 53;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.8;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 25;

Penalties – 14%.

Germany vs. Portugal: Match Prediction

The current Nations League final is being held in Germany, which will certainly play to the advantage of Julian Nagelsmann's team. In this tournament, Germany has won three matches and drawn once at home. Moreover, throughout the Nations League, the team has suffered only one home defeat. It is also worth noting the team's scoring prowess: in the aforementioned four matches, a total of 19 goals were scored.


Portugal also performs well at home, but their away results are less impressive. In their last seven away Nations League matches, the team has only two wins (3 draws, 2 losses). Furthermore, Roberto Martinez's team lacks defensive reliability in the current tournament, having conceded in 7 of 8 matches.


Germany has a good chance to capitalize on their home advantage and once again delight their fans with a high-scoring game. My prediction: Germany will not lose and Total over 1.5 goals

Germany — Portugal betting tips 4 June 2025

The first UEFA Nations League finalist will be decided at the Allianz Arena, where Germany take on Portugal in a high-stakes semi-final clash. The same ground witnessed Paris Saint-Germain’s historic Champions League triumph just days ago – and several of the French club's stars will now be in action for the Portuguese national team.

Germany come into the match shorthanded. Key attacking figures Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz remain sidelined with long-term injuries, and the defensive line has taken further hits with both Nico Schlotterbeck and Antonio Rüdiger ruled out. Barcelona keeper Marc-André ter Stegen has returned from a serious knee injury and made the squad, but it’s unclear whether he will start. Centre-back Yann Aurel Bisseck, who made his debut in the second leg of the quarter-final against Italy, was not included.

Portugal boss Roberto Martínez may have a smaller talent pool than his German counterpart, but he boasts three freshly crowned Champions League winners in his squad — Nuno Mendes, João Neves, and Vitinha Machado. All three played crucial roles in Paris Saint-Germain’s final victory, with Vitinha particularly impressive, delivering a brilliant assist for Désiré Doué’s goal. They’re expected to start, while Nuno Tavares was dropped, leaving Nuno Mendes unchallenged at left-back.

The midfield battle is set to be pivotal, and on paper Portugal match up well against a depleted German side. Their last head-to-head was a thrilling 4:2 win for Germany at Euro 2020, but this encounter feels far more even, especially given the absences in the German camp. What we can expect with confidence is goals. Both teams delivered high-scoring ties in the quarter-finals — Germany edged Italy (2:1) before a thrilling 3:3 draw, while Portugal lost the first leg (0:1) before thumping Denmark (5:2) in the return.

Betting prediction
Total Over 2.5
Cf
Odds
3/4
Bet now

Germany vs Portugal Odds

1X2
DOUBLE CHANCE
OVER/UNDER
BTTS
TOTAL HOME GOALS
TOTAL AWAY GOALS

Current season

Logo Germany Logo Portugal
4 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
3 GF per game 2.25
1 GA per game 1
5.71 Corners per game 7.13
2.14 Yellow cards per game 2.25

Nations League: previous matches in the tournament

Germany
23.03.25
Germany
Italy
D
20.03.25
Italy
Germany
W
19.11.24
Hungary
Germany
D
16.11.24
Germany
Bosnia and Herzegovina
W
14.10.24
Germany
Netherlands
W
11.10.24
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Germany
W
10.09.24
Netherlands
Germany
D
07.09.24
Germany
Hungary
W
More matches
Portugal
23.03.25
Portugal
Denmark
3
:
2
2
:
0
OT
W
20.03.25
Denmark
Portugal
L
18.11.24
Croatia
Portugal
D
15.11.24
Portugal
Poland
W
15.10.24
Scotland
Portugal
D
12.10.24
Poland
Portugal
W
08.09.24
Portugal
Scotland
W
05.09.24
Portugal
Croatia
W
More matches

H2H: Germany — Portugal

UEFA Euro 2020 qualifying 2020
19.06.21
Portugal
Germany
World Cup 2014
16.06.14
Germany
Portugal
4
:
0
Euro 2012
09.06.12
Germany
Portugal
1
:
0
Euro 2008
19.06.08
Portugal
Germany
2
:
3
World Cup 2006
08.07.06
Germany
Portugal
3
:
1
Euro 2000
20.06.00
Portugal
Germany
3
:
0

Group stage

UEFA Nations League A: Group 3
Team
Played
Matches played
W
D
L
Goals
Goals
Points
Points
1
Germany
  1:0 5:0 7:0 6 4 2 0
18:4
14
2
Netherlands
2:2   4:0 5:2 6 2 3 1
13:7
9
3
Hungary
1:1 1:1   0:0 6 1 3 2
4:11
6
4
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1:2 1:1 0:2   6 0 2 4
4:17
2

Team lineups

The line-ups will be known a few hours before kick-off
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