The Matchday 4 World Cup 2026 qualifying match between Italy and Moldova will take place on June 9 at the Stadio Giglio in Reggio Emilia. Italy vs. Moldova: prediction, betting odds, and statistics.
Italy
In their first match of this qualifying cycle, Italy suffered a 0-3 defeat away to Norway. Notably, this was their first heavy loss in this tournament since 2017. Italy's results in World Cup qualification have been disappointing for their fans, with only one win in their last seven matches (4 draws, 2 losses), and failing to score in four of those games. Luciano Spalletti's team is currently fourth in Group I.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 5 of Italy's last 6 World Cup qualifying matches.
- The team has not conceded more than one goal in their last 11 home games in this tournament.
- Italy has not won in 5 of their last 7 home World Cup qualifying matches (4 draws, 1 loss).
Predicted lineup for Italy (4-4-2)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Bastoni, Destiny Udogie, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Diego Coppola – Nicolò Barella, Nicolò Rovella, Sandro Tonali, Davide Zappacosta – Giacomo Raspadori, Matteo Retegui.
Moldova
Sergey Kleșcenco's team skipped the third round, playing a friendly against Poland and losing 0-2. They started the qualifying cycle with defeats to Norway (0-5) and Estonia (2-3). As a result, Moldova is at the bottom of Group I. The team has lost 11 consecutive World Cup qualifying matches, failing to score in six of those games.
- At least three goals were scored in 6 of Moldova's last 7 matches in this tournament.
- The team conceded at least two goals in their last 6 home World Cup qualifying games.
- Moldova has not won at home in 12 consecutive World Cup qualifying matches (2 draws, 10 losses).
Predicted lineup for Moldova (5-4-1)
Cristian Avram – Oleg Reabciuk, Vadim Rață, Victor Mudrac, Vladislav Baboglo, Artur Ioniță – Veaceslav Posmac, Maxim Cojocaru, Mihail Caimacov, Nikita Moțpan – Ion Nicolaescu.
Midfielders Vadim Rață and Maxim Cojocaru are suspended.
Match Prediction: Italy vs. Moldova
Italy has lost several players to injury, but this cannot excuse their result against Norway. Luciano Spalletti's side will be eager to redeem themselves and will aim to do so convincingly. Moldova appears to be the clear underdog in Group I, showing very weak results in World Cup qualification.
Moldova has lost 11 consecutive World Cup qualifiers, conceding fewer than two goals in only one of those matches. In this cycle, Sergey Kleșcenco's team allowed eight goals in two home games, even against a similarly ranked Estonia. Now, they face the challenge of containing a highly motivated Italian attack. Moldova has conceded an average of three goals in their last eight away World Cup qualifying matches.
My prediction: Italy Individual Total Over 2.5 goals
