The first leg of the Italian Super Cup semi-final between Juventus and AC Milan was a thrilling, eventful encounter with the team clinching victory (2:1) and allowing Sérgio Conceição to make a winning debut with his new club. In Turin, AC Milan will strive to gain ground on their rivals in the battle for a top-four place, needing to extend their unbeaten run.
Juventus are in a playing crisis, which affects the team's overall performance and damages their prospects for the next season. A draw with Atalanta (1:1) extended their winless streak to four matches, leaving them nine points adrift of the top three. Since late autumn, Juventus have shown defensive frailties, with injured Gleison Bremer and Juan Cabal absent, leading to numerous errors — they have conceded 10 goals in their last seven matches with 6.48 xGA.
In the same period starting from late November, AC Milan have produced 11.71 xG over seven appearances, only five teams in Serie A have managed more. In their away game against Como (2:1), AC Milan secured victory in the dying moments. Tammy Abraham's presence in the opposition's box freed up Theo Hernández and Rafael Leão, both scoring, while the team accumulated 1.09 expected goals in the second half. On the road, the Milan side have achieved four consecutive wins, including the away Super Cup.
Since May 2021, in nine head-to-head encounters against Juventus, AC Milan have suffered just one defeat. Therefore, we are backing a double chance for the Milan side.
