Lazio's humiliating defeat to Inter Milan (0:6) shouldn't shake their confidence in matches where they are expected to prevail. The away fixture against Lecce is perceived by football pundits as such a match, with Lazio anticipated to secure all three points comfortably.
Lecce's victory over Monza (2:1) temporarily lifted them out of the relegation zone, although their performance level suggests they belong there. Remarkably, the team have only managed 10 goals in 16 league games—comfortably the worst record. While Lecce do create chances, the team's poor finishing is a problem, as they've scored more than seven goals fewer than what their xG suggests (17.06).
A game against Inter Milan that was even in terms of chances highlighted that it's premature to place high expectations on Lazio. Certainly, the Roman side are capable of triumphing in big matches, as evidenced by their victories over Napoli (3:1 and 1:0). However, they are still in the process of building their project. Lazio rank in Serie A's top three for expected goals (30.05) and are also in the top five for xGA (16.83). Star striker Taty Castellanos returns to the lineup after serving a suspension.
In their last nine away games, Lazio have claimed seven victories, scoring at least two goals in five of those matches. Lecce are likely to struggle against the strong offensive play of the Romans.
