Both RC Lens and Toulouse are currently outside the European spots, although they still have opportunities in the coming weeks to move closer to the top five. A clash between these two evenly matched teams is unlikely to be filled with dangerous chances, as both are comfortable playing at a slower pace without dominating possession.
Among the top 13 in the French league, Lens have scored only 19 goals, with only Toulouse scoring fewer (17). In terms of goals conceded, they are the joint-best alongside PSG. Notably, they ended 2024 with a cup fixture against Paris Saint-Germain (1:2 after penalties), where they managed only four shots on target with 32% possession over the 90 minutes. In 15 Ligue 1 rounds, a total over 2.5 has occurred in just four of their matches.
Humble Toulouse do not rank much higher than Lens for entertainment value—nine of their matches have ended with a total under 2.5 in 15 encounters. They barely managed to overcome Lyon (1:0 after penalties), despite Carles Martínez fielding nearly his strongest lineup. Toulouse boast the second-lowest shooting efficiency, scoring 17 goals from an xG of 23.46.
The battle for European qualification will likely force Lens and Toulouse to play cautiously. Therefore, we're betting on the total under 2.5.
