Spain vs France: prediction & betting odds 5 June 2025

The 2024/25 Nations League semi-final between Spain and France will take place on June 5 at the MHP Arena in Stuttgart, Germany. Spain vs. France: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Spain

The team performed best in the group stage of League A, earning 16 points from 6 games (5 wins and 1 draw). Luis de la Fuente's men also conceded only 4 goals, a defensive record matched only by Germany. In the quarter-finals, the team faced a tough challenge from the Netherlands: both matches ended 2-2, followed by an exchange of goals in extra time, and Spain eventually triumphed on penalties (5-4). Notably, Spain has reached the Nations League semi-finals for the third consecutive time, having successfully progressed past this stage in the previous two attempts.

  • The team has not lost in regular time in 11 consecutive matches in this tournament (7 wins and 4 draws).
  • At least three goals have been scored in 90 minutes in Spain's last five Nations League matches.
  • The team has opened the scoring in their last seven Nations League encounters.

Predicted lineup for Spain (4-3-3)

Unai Simón – Marc Cucurella, Dean Donny Huijsen, Robin Le Normand, Pedro Porro – Fabián Ruiz, Martín Zubimendi, Pedri – Álvaro Morata, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal.

Due to injuries and poor form, the following players were not included in the squad: defenders Iñigo Martínez, Dani Carvajal, and Pau Torres, midfielders Rodri Hernández and Marcos Llorente, as well as forwards Ferran Torres and Ayoze Pérez. Defender Pau Cubarsi will join the team on Saturday as he prepares for exams.

France

Like Spain, the French finished first in their group, but they did suffer one defeat (4 wins and 1 draw). The team lost to Italy, whom they surpassed only on tiebreakers. In the quarter-finals, Didier Deschamps' men, like Spain, needed a penalty shootout, as the two matches and extra time against Croatia ended in a draw (0-2, 2-0, extra time 0-0, on penalties 5-4). Notably, France previously played in the Nations League semi-finals in the 2020/21 season and defeated Spain in the final of that tournament (2-1).

  • The team has not lost in regular time in 6 of their last 7 Nations League matches (5 wins and 1 draw).
  • At least two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 9 of France's last 10 matches in this tournament.
  • France has not conceded in the second half in their last seven Nations League matches.

Predicted lineup for France (4-3-3)

Mike Maignan – Theo Hernández, Ibrahima Konaté, Benjamin Pavard, Malo Gusto – Michael Olise, Manu Koné, Aurélien Tchouaméni – Ousmane Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé, Bradley Barcola.

For various reasons, defenders Dayot Upamecano, Jules Koundé, and William Saliba, midfielder Eduardo Camavinga, and forward Kingsley Coman were not included in the squad. Additionally, forward Antoine Griezmann has retired from international football.

Referee

Michael Oliver (Slovenia)

Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 62;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;

Red cards shown – 3;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties – 33%.

Match Prediction: Spain vs. France

The upcoming match features the two previous Nations League winners. In this clash, I slightly favor Spain, who have not suffered a defeat in this season's Nations League, confidently navigating the tournament. Spain's excellent form is also noteworthy; they have not lost in regular time at the official level for 23 matches (18 wins and 5 draws).

Didier Deschamps' side has not been as convincing over the past year. In their last 10 official games, France has recorded five wins, two draws, and three losses, including a defeat to Spain in a crucial European Championship semi-final (1-2). Additionally, Spain has lost to France only once in their last five official encounters (3 wins and 1 draw).

My prediction – Spain with a handicap (0)

Betting tips 5 June 2025

Spain, the current European champions, are targeting another UEFA Nations League title. France, who lifted the trophy in the previous edition, are ready for a fierce contest. The emphatic 5:0 win by Paris Saint-Germain over Inter Milan in the UEFA Champions League final will undoubtedly serve as additional motivation for the France squad.

Spain have gone unbeaten in eight matches since the group stage began, keeping three clean sheets along the way. In the quarter-finals against the Netherlands (2:2 and 4:3 on penalties), the squad showed attacking intent. With Rodrigo Hernández returning to midfield, their opponents are expected to have fewer opportunities to threaten. The absence of Ferran Torres, who had become a key figure as a false nine, could limit the impact of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams on the flanks, particularly when looking for a central target.

Since their second group game, France have conceded only three goals across five matches en route to the knockout round. Their defensive unit was outstanding in the second leg of the quarter-finals against Croatia (3:0 on penalties), allowing just 0.18 xG over 120 minutes and not facing a single shot on target. Didier Deschamps will have a full squad at his disposal and may consider a back three to better neutralise Lamine Yamal.

This match will also feature a head-to-head between leading Ballon d’Or hopefuls Ousmane Dembélé, Lamine Yamal, and Pedro González López at international level. On neutral ground in Germany, it is unlikely that Spain and France will produce more than two goals, with both teams expected to approach the game with caution and mutual respect.

Betting prediction
Total Under 2.5
Cf
Odds
18/25
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Spain vs France Odds

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Nations League: previous matches in the tournament

Spain
23.03.25
Spain
Netherlands
2
:
2
1
:
1
OT
5
:
4
P
D
20.03.25
Netherlands
Spain
D
18.11.24
Spain
Switzerland
W
15.11.24
Denmark
Spain
W
15.10.24
Spain
Serbia
W
12.10.24
Spain
Denmark
W
08.09.24
Switzerland
Spain
W
05.09.24
Serbia
Spain
D
More matches
France
23.03.25
France
Croatia
2
:
0
0
:
0
OT
5
:
4
P
W
20.03.25
Croatia
France
L
17.11.24
Italy
France
W
14.11.24
France
Israel
D
14.10.24
Belgium
France
W
10.10.24
Israel
France
W
09.09.24
France
Belgium
W
06.09.24
France
Italy
L
More matches

H2H: Spain — France

EURO 2024 2024
09.07.24
Spain
France
Nations League 2020-2021
10.10.21
Spain
France
Friendlies 2016-2017
28.03.17
France
Spain
Friendlies 2014
04.09.14
France
Spain
1
:
0
World Cup Qualifiers 2014
26.03.13
France
Spain
0
:
1
16.10.12
Spain
France
1
:
1
Euro 2012
23.06.12
Spain
France
2
:
0
Friendlies 2010
03.03.10
France
Spain
0
:
2
Friendlies 2008
06.02.08
Spain
France
1
:
0
World Cup 2006
27.06.06
Spain
France
1
:
3
Euro 2000
25.06.00
Spain
France
1
:
2
More matches

Group stage

UEFA Nations League A: Group 4
Team
Played
Matches played
W
D
L
Goals
Goals
Points
Points
1
Spain
  1:0 3:0 3:2 6 5 1 0
13:4
16
2
Denmark
1:2   2:0 2:0 6 2 2 2
7:5
8
3
Serbia
0:0 0:0   2:0 6 1 3 2
3:6
6
4
Switzerland
1:4 2:2 1:1   6 0 2 4
6:14
2

Team lineups

Spain

Luis de la Fuente
coach
Player Matches Goals
Line-up
Unai Simón
gk. 0 0
Dean Donny Huijsen
df. 0 0
Marc Cucurella
df. 0 0
Pedro Porro
df. 0 0
Robin Le Normand
df. 0 0
Martín Zubimendi
mf. 0 0
Mikel Merino
mf. 0 0
Pedro González López
mf. 0 0
Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
fw. 0 0
Mikel Oyarzabal
fw. 0 0
Nicholas Williams Arthuer
fw. 0 0
Substitutes
Alejandro Remiro Gargallo
gk. 0 0
David Raya
gk. 0 0
Daniel Vivian Moreno
df. 0 0
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
df. 0 0
Álex Grimaldo
df. 0 0
Óscar Mingueza
df. 0 0
Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
mf. 0 0
Dani Olmo
mf. 0 0
Fabián Ruiz
mf. 0 0
Fermín López Marín
mf. 0 0
Isco
mf. 0 0
Pablo Páez Gavira
mf. 0 0
Yeremy Jesús Pino Santos
mf. 0 0
Samuel Omorodion Aghehowa
fw. 0 0
Álvaro Morata
fw. 0 0
France

D. Deschamps
coach
Player Matches Goals
Line-up
Mike Maignan
gk. 0 0
Clément Lenglet
df. 0 0
Ibrahima Konaté
df. 0 0
Pierre Kazeye Rommel Kalulu Kyatengwa
df. 0 0
Theo Hernandez
df. 0 0
Adrien Rabiot
mf. 0 0
Kouadio Koné
mf. 0 0
Michael Akpovie Olise
mf. 0 0
Désiré Nonka-Maho Doué
fw. 0 0
Kylian Mbappé
fw. 0 0
Ousmane Dembélé
fw. 0 0
Substitutes
Brice Samba
gk. 0 0
Lucas Eugène Chevalier
gk. 0 0
Benjamin Pavard
df. 0 0
Loïc Séri Badé
df. 0 0
Lucas Digne
df. 0 0
Lucas Hernandez
df. 0 0
Malo Arthur Gusto
df. 0 0
Aurelien Tchouameni
mf. 0 0
Mathis Rayan Cherki
mf. 0 0
Matteo Guendouzi
mf. 0 0
Warren Jean-Pierre Zaïre-Emery
mf. 0 0
Bradley Laurent Barcola
fw. 0 0
Marcus Thuram
fw. 0 0
Randal Kolo
fw. 0 0
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