The first leg of the Copa Libertadores play-off brought an unexpected victory for the Uruguayan club with a 4:0 scoreline. Bookmakers favour the Bolivian football giants for the return match, but the observed class difference from last week is unlikely to disappear in a short period of time.
In Montevideo, The Strongest conceded three goals by the 36th minute and could have let in a fourth, but Jaime Baez's goal was disallowed by VAR. Throughout the 90 minutes of the first match, the Bolivian side failed to take a single shot on target, and their leading winger Jaime Arrascaita was forced off with an injury early in the second half. In their national league, the team also faced disappointment, losing to Tomayapo (0:2) with just two shots on target.
In their last 15 games, Peñarol has suffered only two losses in regular time. During the group stage of the Copa Libertadores, they conceded just four goals in three away matches, allowing them to travel to Bolivia with confidence given their significant lead. Over the weekend, the team also performed well defensively against Cerro Largo (0:0), conceding only one shot on target over 90 minutes.
It’s clear that The Strongest will press Peñarol high on home field, but closing the gap seems impossible. We recommend betting on a handicap for the Uruguayan side, who will be satisfied even with a minimal loss.
