Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Australian Open match.
Aryna Sabalenka is on the brink of winning the Australian Open for the third consecutive time. The Belarusian tennis star is in outstanding form, having remained unbeaten so far this season (11-0). For Madison Keys, this final represents a chance to claim her first Grand Slam title. However, facing Sabalenka will be a significant challenge for the American.
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka approaches the final as the outright favourite. The Belarusian has secured 11 wins this season, including a title at the hard-court tournament in Brisbane. At the Australian Open 2025, Aryna has conceded only 43 games across six matches. She dropped just one set and won five matches in straight sets. Additionally, the Belarusian has claimed victory in seven of her last eight encounters against Americans on hard courts without dropping a set. In head-to-head meetings against Keys, Sabalenka leads (4-1), with three wins, including last year's in Melbourne, all on hard courts.
Madison Keys
The American has had an impressive run to the final, defeating three top-10 opponents, including Iga Świątek in the semifinals. However, three out of her six matches in this tournament have been gruelling, going to three sets, which could lead to fatigue heading into the final. For instance, the semifinal was highly challenging, where Madison saved a match point against Świątek and triumphed in the deciding tiebreak (5:7, 6:1, 7:6). Moreover, across six matches, she has committed more unforced errors than hit winners, which is a worrying sign.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction
Aryna looks like the clear favourite in this match. Her power, consistency, and confidence on the Melbourne courts make her almost unbeatable in this tournament. Despite her strengths, Keys is unlikely to challenge the Belarusian, especially considering her fatigue from the tough semifinal against Świątek. Hence, we are backing a win for Aryna Sabalenka.
