Odds overview
Hoffenheim are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.43, compared with 4.90 for a draw and 6.90 for an away win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.75. In the handicap market, Hamburg (+1.5) at 1.75 is shorter than Hoffenheim (-1.5) at 2.05.
Why Hoffenheim are favourites
The bookmakers offer 1.43 for a Hoffenheim win, 4.90 for a draw and 6.90 for a Hamburg win.
- The hosts have the edge in controlling key areas: Hoffenheim have not been beaten on shots on target in any of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Hamburg regularly concede the initiative away from home and have not won the corner count in any of their last 10 away league matches.
Form and Line-up Hoffenheim
Despite a modest start of three points from four rounds and a 1:3 defeat to Paderborn, Hoffenheim remain highly active in attack at home. They have not been outshot in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Hoffenheim's opponents have had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Hoffenheim have had more than 12.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- More than 2.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Hoffenheim's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Oliver Baumann, Vladimír Coufal, Ozan Kabak, Koki Machida, Mats Rots, Leon Avdullahu, Wouter Burger, Bambasé Conté, Adam Daghim, Adam Hložek, Max Moerstedt
Form and Line-up Hamburg
Hamburg beat Cologne 2:1 despite similar xG figures (1.58 to 1.77), but absences in attack significantly limit their creative options. Albert Grønbæk and Patson Daka will miss the match through injury.
- Hamburg have been outshot in 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- Hamburg have had fewer than 14.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- More than 2.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Hamburg's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Daniel Heuer Fernandes, Nicolás Capaldo, Jordan Torunarigha, Warmed Omari, Zakaria El Ouahdi, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Nicolai Remberg, David Møller Wolfe, Fábio Vieira, Albert Grønbæk, Terem Moffi
Teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Hoffenheim a 66.7% chance of winning, with odds of 1.43 and fair odds of 1.50. The draw accounts for 19.5%: 4.90 against fair odds of 5.14; a Hamburg win has a 13.8% chance: 6.90 against 7.23.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim win | 1.43 | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.14 | 19.5% |
| Hamburg win | 6.90 | 7.23 | 13.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 looks considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.75. The 3.5-goal market is almost balanced, but Under 3.5 goals at 1.80 is favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.00.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.75 | 1.40 |
| 3.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
Handicap prediction
Hamburg (+1.5) at 1.75 is shorter than Hoffenheim (-1.5) at 2.05. At the one-goal handicap line, Hoffenheim (-1) is available at 1.60 and Hamburg (+1) at 2.25. For Draw No Bet, Hoffenheim (0) at 1.13 is considerably shorter than Hamburg (0) at 4.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.05 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.75 | |
| 1.60 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.25 | |
| 1.13 | 0 | 4.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.60 is shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.25: the latter means at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/10
|
17/100
|
7/4
|
| 888sport |
11/100
|
9/50
|
7/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Hoffenheim — 2.5 goals, Hamburg — 1 goal.
Hoffenheim team total goals
Hoffenheim team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.03 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 8.50. At the two-goal line, Over 2 goals at 1.60 is shorter than Under 2 goals at 2.25; at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.07. At the three-goal line, Under 3 goals is 1.35 and Over 3 goals is 2.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.50 | 0.5 | 1.03 |
| 2.25 | 2 | 1.60 |
| 1.70 | 2.5 | 2.07 |
| 1.35 | 3 | 2.90 |
Hamburg team total goals
Hamburg team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.50. At the one-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.63 is shorter than Over 1 goal at 2.20, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.30 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 3.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.63 | 1 | 2.20 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.25 |
