Odds overview
Hoffenheim are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.43, compared with 4.90 for a draw and 6.90 for a Hamburg win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.75. The handicap odds also favour the hosts: Hamburg (+1.5) at 1.75 is shorter than Hoffenheim (-1.5) at 2.05.
Why Hoffenheim are favourites
The bookmakers offer odds of 1.43 for a Hoffenheim win, 4.90 for a draw and 6.90 for a Hamburg win.
- The hosts have the edge in control of key areas: Hoffenheim have not been outshot on target in any of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Hamburg regularly surrender the initiative away from home and have not won the corner count in any of their last 10 away league matches.
Form and Line-up Hoffenheim
Despite a modest start of three points from four rounds and a 1:3 defeat to Paderborn, Hoffenheim remain highly active in attack at home. They have not been outshot overall in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Hoffenheim's opponents have had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Hoffenheim have had more than 12.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- More than 2.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Hoffenheim's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Oliver Baumann, Vladimír Coufal, Ozan Kabak, Koki Machida, Mats Rots, Leon Avdullahu, Wouter Burger, Bambasé Conté, Adam Daghim, Adam Hložek, Max Moerstedt
Form and Line-up Hamburg
Hamburg beat Cologne 2:1 despite similar attacking threat (1.58 to 1.77 xG), but absences in attack significantly limit the team's creative potential. Albert Grønbæk and Patson Daka will miss the match through injury.
- Hamburg have been outshot in 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- Hamburg have had fewer than 14.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- More than 2.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Hamburg's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Daniel Heuer Fernandes, Nicolás Capaldo, Jordan Torunarigha, Warmed Omari, Zakaria El Ouahdi, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Nicolai Remberg, David Møller Wolfe, Fábio Vieira, Albert Grønbæk, Terem Moffi
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Hoffenheim a 66.7% chance of winning, with quoted odds of 1.43 and fair odds of 1.50. A draw has a 19.5% chance: 4.90 against fair odds of 5.14; a Hamburg win has a 13.8% chance: 6.90 against 7.23.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim win | 1.43 | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.14 | 19.5% |
| Hamburg win | 6.90 | 7.23 | 13.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 looks considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.75. At 3.5 goals, the market is nearly balanced, but Under 3.5 goals at 1.80 is favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.00.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.75 | 1.40 |
| 3.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
Handicap prediction
Hamburg (+1.5) at 1.75 is shorter than Hoffenheim (-1.5) at 2.05. For the 1-goal line, Hoffenheim (-1) are available at 1.60 and Hamburg (+1) at 2.25. On the zero handicap, Hoffenheim (0) at 1.13 are considerably shorter than Hamburg (0) at 4.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.05 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.75 | |
| 1.60 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.25 | |
| 1.13 | 0 | 4.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.60 is shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.25: the latter requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Hoffenheim — 2.5 goals; Hamburg — 1 goal.
Hoffenheim team total goals
For Hoffenheim's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.03 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 8.50. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals at 1.60 is shorter than Under 2 goals at 2.25; at 2.5, Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.07. At the 3-goal line, Under 3 goals is available at 1.35 and Over 3 goals at 2.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.50 | 0.5 | 1.03 |
| 2.25 | 2 | 1.60 |
| 1.70 | 2.5 | 2.07 |
| 1.35 | 3 | 2.90 |
Hamburg team total goals
For Hamburg's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.50. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.63 is shorter than Over 1 goal at 2.20, while at 1.5, Under 1.5 goals at 1.30 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 3.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.63 | 1 | 2.20 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.25 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Daniel Siebert (Germany)
Matches — 18 (Bundesliga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.1;
Matches with red cards — 2 of 18;
Matches with penalties — 7 of 18.
