Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Athletic Bilbao to win at 2.60 are marginally favoured over Rayo Vallecano to win at 2.70, while the draw is available at 3.40. Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals are both offered at 1.90 in the main totals market. Athletic Bilbao Draw No Bet at 1.88 has slightly shorter odds than Rayo Vallecano Draw No Bet at 1.92.
Why Athletic Bilbao are favourites
Bookmakers give the visitors a narrow edge: Athletic Bilbao to win are offered at 2.60, compared with 2.70 for Rayo Vallecano and 3.40 for the draw.
- Athletic Bilbao are unbeaten in their last seven away matches against Rayo Vallecano — four wins and three draws.
- Rayo Vallecano have conceded 16 goals in seven rounds — one of the worst defensive records in La Liga.
- Athletic Bilbao have conceded just six goals in six league matches, showing defensive solidity.
Form and Line-up Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano have had a mixed start to the season — two hard-fought wins (3:2 over Racing Santander and 2:1 over Espanyol), two 1:1 draws (against Alavés and Osasuna) and three defeats, including losses to Real Madrid (1:4) and Barcelona (2:5). They have conceded 16 goals in seven rounds without keeping a clean sheet. The only bright spot has been Sergio Camello's goalscoring: the 25-year-old Spaniard has scored seven goals this season.
- Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in all 10 of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Rayo Vallecano's last 10 La Liga home matches.
- Rayo Vallecano had more than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
Probable Rayo Vallecano line-up (4-3-3): Emil Audero, Andrei Rațiu, Florian Lejeune, Mujaid Sadick, Adrià Pedrosa, Unai López, Isi Palazón, Pathé Ciss, Jorge de Frutos, Sergio Camello, Álvaro García.
Absentees: Augusto Batalla and Luiz Felipe (both injured); Adrià Pedrosa and Iván Balliu (both doubtful).Form and Line-up Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao have made a much better start. After consecutive defeats to Sevilla (1:3) and Barcelona (0:2), the Basque side recovered with two wins (2:0 over Celta and 3:0 over Atlético Madrid) and two draws (1:1 against Elche and 0:0 against Alavés). Edin Terzic's team play pragmatic football — they have not shone in attack (seven goals), but have been solid defensively (six conceded).
- Athletic Bilbao's opponents committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
- Fewer than 5.5 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Athletic Bilbao's last 10 La Liga away matches.
- Athletic Bilbao's opponents were caught offside more than 1.5 times in all 10 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
Probable Athletic Bilbao line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón, Jesús Areso, Yeray Álvarez, Aymeric Laporte, Yuri Berchiche, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Robert Navarro, Oihan Sancet, Álex Berenguer, Iñaki Williams.
Absentees: Unai Egiluz and Nico Williams (both injured); Maroan Sannadi (doubtful).
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Athletic Bilbao a 36.7% chance, with average odds of 2.60 for an away win and fair odds of 2.73. Rayo Vallecano to win have a 35.3% chance, average odds of 2.70 and fair odds of 2.83; the draw stands at 28.0%, with odds of 3.40 and 3.57 respectively.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano to win | 2.70 | 2.83 | 35.3% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.57 | 28.0% |
| Athletic Bilbao to win | 2.60 | 2.73 | 36.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals are level at 1.90 each. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 at 1.35 is markedly more likely than Over 3.5 at 2.95.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap prediction
The odds for Rayo Vallecano (-1.5) and Athletic Bilbao (-1.5) are close at 4.80 and 4.70. Rayo Vallecano (+1.5) at 1.14 are quoted slightly higher than Athletic Bilbao (+1.5) at 1.13; at the -1 handicap line, Rayo Vallecano (-1) are 4.30 and Athletic Bilbao (-1) are 4.15. Rayo Vallecano (+1) and Athletic Bilbao (+1) are both 1.20, while at handicap (0), Athletic Bilbao are shorter at 1.88 than Rayo Vallecano at 1.92.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.80 | -1.5 | 4.70 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 4.15 |
| 1.20 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 1.92 | 0 | 1.88 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.70 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.10; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/2
|
3/10
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
1/2
|
3/10
|
2/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Rayo Vallecano — 1 goal; Athletic Bilbao — 1.5 goals.
Rayo Vallecano team total goals
Rayo Vallecano team total goals: Under 0.5 at 3.35 has longer odds than Over 0.5 at 1.28; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 2.25 and Over 1 is 1.60. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.53 is favoured, while Over 1.5 is offered at 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.53 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Athletic Bilbao team total goals
Athletic Bilbao team total goals: Under 0.5 at 3.40 has markedly longer odds than Over 0.5 at 1.27; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 2.35 and Over 1 is 1.55. Under 1.5 at 1.57 has shorter odds than Over 1.5 at 2.35, while at the 2-goal line Under 2 is 1.20 compared with 3.95 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.40 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
| 2.35 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 1.57 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
| 1.20 | 2 | 3.95 |
