Norrie reached this stage after a three-hour battle with Alex de Minaur, in which he saved a match point. Fils completed his round in an hour without facing a single break point. Different levels of sharpness, different freshness, and no previous meetings in their careers.
Norrie drags out every match. He is a left-hander with an awkward rhythm, extending rallies to the last ball and forcing his opponent to hit an extra shot. Alex de Minaur led 7:5, 5:2, served for the match and had a match point, but ultimately lost 5:7, 6:7, 1:6 in two hours and 52 minutes. Thirty-two games in total. The Brit does not collapse quickly even when he is behind.
Fils is more powerful and serves harder. Against Mariano Navone, he won 91% of points behind his first serve and did not face a single break point. Yet one round earlier, Fils had been taken to three sets by Zachary Svajda, 6:4, 3:6, 6:1. The Frenchman has admitted that his level drops in the match after an outstanding performance.
The physical side also points towards a long match. A week ago in Washington, Fils had a health issue, while he withdrew from the French Open in the spring because of his back. Montreal is humid at the moment, and Norrie's three-hour battle with de Minaur was played in exactly such conditions. It was a night session, with heavy balls and few cheap points on serve.
Fils' 10-0 hard-court record against players outside the top 25 this season looks like a verdict on Norrie. It says nothing about the number of games, though. The Brit played a semi-final in Los Cabos a week ago, has come through three rounds here and knocked out the third seed. On current form, he is far better than his ranking of 37th.
They have never met before. A first match always involves an adjustment period: Fils needs to work out Norrie's left-handed spin, while Norrie needs to find his return against one of the best serves on tour. That cannot be resolved in 19 games.
We need the match not to end in two quick sets. Even a straightforward 6:4, 7:6 result clears the total, while any third set makes the bet a winner long before the final game.
