Odds overview
Sweden are favourites: a home win is available at around 1.92, while a draw and a Poland win are at 3.70 and 3.95. Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 goals are both offered at 1.90. In the main handicap market, Sweden Draw No Bet (0) at 1.40 is a much shorter option than Poland Draw No Bet (0) at 2.70.
Why Sweden are favourites
A Sweden win is offered at 1.92, a draw at 3.70 and a Poland win at 3.95.
- Sweden have scored at least once in nine of their last ten matches in all competitions.
- Poland have been more restrained — they have scored no more than two goals in eight of their last ten matches.
- Sweden have lost to Poland only once in their last seven meetings.
Form and Line-up Sweden
Head coach Graham Potter attributed Sweden's expanded September squad to a congested schedule and his aim to develop the team while achieving results, making rotation between matches more likely. Sweden face Romania on 25 September and Poland on 28 September 2026 in UEFA Nations League B, which Tre Kronor entered following their previous campaign — a first-place finish with 16 points and a 19:4 goal difference.
- Sweden have taken more than 3.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Sweden have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Sweden have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Viktor Johansson, Elliot Stroud, Carl Starfelt, Victor Lindelöf, Emil Holm, Lucas Bergvall, Jesper Karlström, Yasin Ayari, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Viktor Gyökeres, Alexander Isak.
Absentees: Anthony Elanga, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Isak Hien, Jacob Widell Zetterström (all injured).
Form and Line-up Poland
Poland failed to make an impact in the UEFA Nations League — they were relegated from League A after finishing fourth with four points from six matches. Their recent friendlies also went poorly, with a defeat to Ukraine (0:2) and a draw with Nigeria (2:2). Poland play Bosnia and Herzegovina on 25 September before travelling to Sweden on 28 September 2026.
- Poland have scored at least once in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- At least two goals have been scored in 9 of Poland's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Fewer than 4.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Poland's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Marcin Bulka, Jan Bednarek, Przemyslaw Wisniewski, Jakub Kiwior, Matty Cash, Nicola Zalewski, Piotr Zieliński, Sebastian Szymański, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Karol Swiderski, Robert Lewandowski.
Absentees: Adrian Benedyczak, Filip Rózga (both injured).
The teams' chances
A Sweden win at 1.92 has fair odds of 2.00 and a probability of 49.9%. A draw is offered at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.86 and a probability of 25.9%; the corresponding figures for a Poland win are 3.95, 4.12 and 24.2%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden win | 1.92 | 2.00 | 49.9% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Poland win | 3.95 | 4.12 | 24.2% |
Total goals prediction
In the totals market, Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 goals are both offered at 1.90. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 has shorter odds of 1.35, compared with 2.95 for Over 3.5.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap market, Sweden (-1.5) are at 3.35 and Poland (-1.5) at 7.40; for a +1.5 handicap, the odds are 1.05 for Sweden (+1.5) and 1.28 for Poland (+1.5). Sweden (-1) are at 2.70 compared with 6.40 for Poland (-1), while Sweden (+1) are at 1.07 compared with 1.45 for Poland (+1). At a handicap of 0, Sweden Draw No Bet (0) at 1.40 is shorter than Poland Draw No Bet (0) at 2.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | -1.5 | 7.40 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.70 | -1 | 6.40 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 1.40 | 0 | 2.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes has shorter odds at 1.80 than Both teams to score — No at 1.95; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.95 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/4
|
29/100
|
83/100
|
| William Hill |
29/100
|
1/4
|
17/20
|
| 888sport |
29/100
|
1/4
|
17/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Sweden — 1.5 goals; Poland — 1 goal.
Sweden team total goals
For Sweden's team total, Under 0.5 goals is available at 4.15 and Over 0.5 at 1.17; at 1 goal, the respective odds are 3.00 and 1.35. At 1.5 goals, Under is at 1.78 compared with 1.98 for Over; at 2 goals, the odds are 1.35 and 2.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.78 | 1.5 | 1.98 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.95 |
Poland team total goals
For Poland's team total, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 2.55 and Over 0.5 at 1.48. At 1 goal, Under is at 1.72 and Over at 2.05; at 1.5 goals, the respective odds are 1.33 and 3.00.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
| 1.72 | 1 | 2.05 |
| 1.33 | 1.5 | 3.00 |
