Odds overview
Sweden are favourites: a Sweden win is available at around 1.92, while the draw and a Poland win are 3.70 and 3.95. Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 goals are both quoted at 1.90. In the main handicap market, Sweden Draw No Bet at 1.40 is markedly shorter than Poland Draw No Bet at 2.70.
Why Sweden are favourites
A Sweden win is offered at 1.92, the draw at 3.70 and a Poland win at 3.95.
- Sweden have scored at least one goal in nine of their last ten matches across all competitions.
- Poland have been more restrained — they have scored no more than two goals in eight of their last ten matches.
- Sweden have lost to Poland only once in their last seven head-to-head meetings.
Form and Line-up Sweden
Head coach Graham Potter attributed Sweden’s expanded September squad to a congested schedule and the aim of developing the team while delivering results, making rotation between matches more likely. Sweden face Romania on 25 September, then meet Poland 28 September 2026 in League B, which Tre Kronor reached after finishing top in the previous campaign with 16 points and a 19:4 goal difference.
- Sweden have taken more than 3.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Sweden have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Sweden have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable Sweden line-up (3-5-2): Viktor Johansson, Elliot Stroud, Carl Starfelt, Victor Lindelöf, Emil Holm, Lucas Bergvall, Jesper Karlström, Yasin Ayari, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Viktor Gyökeres, Alexander Isak.
Absentees: Anthony Elanga, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Isak Hien, Jacob Widell Zetterström (all injured).
Form and Line-up Poland
Poland struggled in the UEFA Nations League — they were relegated from League A after finishing fourth with four points from six matches. Their recent friendlies also went badly, with a 0:2 defeat to Ukraine and a 2:2 draw with Nigeria. Poland face Bosnia and Herzegovina on 25 September, then travel to Sweden 28 September 2026.
- Poland have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- At least two goals have been scored in 9 of Poland’s last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Fewer than 4.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Poland’s last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable Poland line-up (3-5-2): Marcin Bulka, Jan Bednarek, Przemyslaw Wisniewski, Jakub Kiwior, Matty Cash, Nicola Zalewski, Piotr Zieliński, Sebastian Szymański, Tymoteusz Puchacz, Karol Swiderski, Robert Lewandowski.
Absentees: Adrian Benedyczak, Filip Rózga (both injured).
The teams’ chances
A Sweden win at 1.92 corresponds to fair odds of 2.00 and a probability of 49.9%. The draw is available at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.86 and a probability of 25.9%; the corresponding figures for a Poland win are 3.95, 4.12 and 24.2%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden win | 1.92 | 2.00 | 49.9% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Poland win | 3.95 | 4.12 | 24.2% |
Total goals prediction
In the totals market, Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 goals have the same odds of 1.90. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is shorter at 1.35, compared with 2.95 for Over 3.5.
| Goal line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap market, Sweden (-1.5) are available at 3.35 and Poland (-1.5) at 7.40; with a +1.5 handicap, Sweden are 1.05 and Poland 1.28. Sweden (-1) are quoted at 2.70 against 6.40 for Poland (-1), while Sweden (+1) are 1.07 against 1.45 for Poland (+1). On the zero handicap, Sweden (0) are shorter at 1.40 than Poland (0) at 2.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | -1.5 | 7.40 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.70 | -1 | 6.40 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 1.40 | 0 | 2.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes has shorter odds at 1.80, compared with 1.95 for No, which means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.95 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
7/10
|
| William Hill |
3/10
|
29/100
|
3/4
|
| 888sport |
33/100
|
29/100
|
7/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Sweden — 1.5 goals; Poland — 1 goal.
Sweden team total goals
For Sweden’s team total, Under 0.5 goals is available at 4.15 and Over 0.5 at 1.17; at 1 goal, the respective odds are 3.00 and 1.35. At 1.5 goals, Under is 1.78 against 1.98 for Over, while at 2 goals the odds are 1.35 against 2.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.78 | 1.5 | 1.98 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.95 |
Poland team total goals
For Poland’s team total, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.55 and Over 0.5 at 1.48. At 1 goal, Under is 1.72 and Over 2.05; at 1.5 goals, the respective odds are 1.33 and 3.00.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
| 1.72 | 1 | 2.05 |
| 1.33 | 1.5 | 3.00 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Javier Alberola (Spain)
Matches — 6 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 6;
Matches with a penalty — 0 of 6.
Tobias Viktor Johansson
Carl Anders Theodor Starfelt
Daniel Jonathan Svensson
Gabriel Johan Gudmundsson
Victor Jörgen Nilsson Lindelöf
Jens Patrik Wålemark
Besfort Zeneli
Lucas Erik Holger Bergvall
Yasin Abbas Ayari
Erik Benjamin Nygren
Viktor Einar Gyökeres
Melker Åke Ellborg
Erik Hampus Skoglund
Gustaf Johan Lagerbielke
John Olof Mellberg
Algot Sebastian Nanasi
Elliot Karl Stroud
Hugo Emanuel Larsson
Jesper Karlström
Alexander Olof Bernhardsson
Marcin Bułka
Tymoteusz Puchacz
Jakub Piotr Kiwior
Przemysław Wiśniewski
Mateusz Żukowski
Nicola Zalewski
Piotr Zieliński
Sebastian Szymański
Wiktor Nowak
Mateusz Kochalski
Sławomir Abramowicz
Kacper Potulski
Tomasz Karol Kędziora
Kacper Urbański
Bartosz Slisz
Karol Świderski
Marcel Reguła
Michał Krzysztof Skóraś
Robert Lewandowski
