Nakashima reached the fourth round in good form but with heavy legs: a semi-final in Washington, followed by two and a half hours battling Tituan Droguet. Rinderknech, by contrast, is fresh — Frances Tiafoe withdrew in the third round, and the Frenchman has played only one and a half full matches in Canada. Similar serving levels with differing levels of freshness almost always produce a long match.
Nakashima is in his best form of the year, and that is an argument for the total, not against it. The American prevails not through pace but through his grinding game. In Washington, he beat Jakub Mensik (7:6, 3:6, 6:4) and Alex de Minaur (7:6, 6:4), while he lost to Taylor Fritz only after a third set (3:6, 6:3, 3:6). Three matches in a row — and not one quick scoreline.
The same pattern has continued in Montreal. The demolition of Daniel Altmaier (6:2, 6:1) was the American's only quick job in two weeks, and his opponent was a clay-courter without hard-court form. Against his next opponent, Tituan Droguet, Nakashima battled for two hours and 31 minutes, dropped the opening set and pulled through at the end (4:6, 6:2, 7:5). Thirty-six games where 20 were expected.
Rinderknech is not the sort of player you sweep aside. The Frenchman has had an average season, with 16 wins and 17 defeats, but his serve keeps him competitive in every set. In Montreal, he beat Miomir Kecmanovic (6:7, 6:4, 6:4) after losing the first set in a tie-break. Thirty-three games. Breaking his serve twice in a match on fast Canadian hard courts is a task for very few players.
Another factor is freshness. Frances Tiafoe's retirement at 6:2, 2:0 gave Rinderknech almost a full match's rest. This matters more for the total than it seems: a tired server falls apart and gives up short sets, while a fresh one takes every game to deuce.
Their only head-to-head produced 34 games — Lyon 2023, 7:6 (6), 1:6, 7:5 in favour of the American. It was on clay and three years ago, but the roles remain the same: Nakashima is stronger in rallies, Rinderknech is more dangerous on serve, and neither lets the other pull away.
The line is low here. For it not to land, a one-sided 6:4, 6:3 scenario is needed — but not a single argument supports that. One tie-break or a third set is enough, and the total clears with room to spare.
