Sabalenka has progressed through the draw without dropping a set and as the world No. 1. Alexandrova retired during a match in Memphis nine days ago and is battling through the rounds here on sheer determination. The difference in sharpness is greater than the difference in ranking.
Sabalenka has thrived on hard courts in 2026. Her 25 wins and one defeat on the surface mean only Serena Williams has reached 25 wins in a season faster over the past 10 years. Brisbane, Indian Wells, Miami: three titles, all on fast hard courts.
The Belarusian has come through the first week in Toronto without resistance. Moyuka Uchijima — 6:3, 6:3; Zhang Shuai — 6:3, 6:4. Against Zhang, she did not concede a single game on serve and won 81% of first-serve points. Eighteen and 19 games per match — that has been her rhythm this week.
Alexandrova's season is falling apart. She has 13 wins and 18 defeats, with seven hard-court wins against nine losses, while her victory over Camila Osorio was only her second at WTA 1000 events all year. Before Canada came Memphis and retirement in the deciding set.
She is battling through here as well. Fifteen double faults against an opponent ranked in the 60s, a lost opening set to Talia Gibson (5:7) and three hours 40 minutes on court across two rounds — almost an hour more than Sabalenka.
The head-to-head record looks close: Sabalenka leads 5:4, with it 2:2 on hard courts. But we should look at the most recent meeting. Berlin, June this year — 6:4, 6:4. Exactly 20 games, and Alexandrova was fresher and more confident then than she is today.
Sabalenka breaks serve early and barely gives up her own. Against a Russian who has been handing out double faults in batches this week, this should end quickly. We are taking the Belarusian's win in 20 games or fewer.
