What to Bet on at Roland Garros 2026
At Roland Garros 2026, Jannik Sinner has every chance of completing the career Grand Slam. The Italian already has Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open titles to his name.
Who will win Roland Garros 2026?
In Paris, Carlos Alcaraz had stopped Jannik Sinner in each of the last two years, but this season the Spaniard will miss the tournament through injury. As for the rest of the field, Jannik has simply brushed them aside this season.
What should you back at the French Open when the favourite looks this clear? We break it down in this article.
Sinner Is the Clear Favourite for Roland Garros 2026
Even in Rafael Nadal’s prime years, the king of clay was not priced as such a clear favourite for the title in Paris. Odds of below 1.40 on Sinner winning the tournament underline the total dominance of the world No 1 on the tour.
French Open 2026 Winner Odds
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Player |
|||
|
Sinner |
7/20
|
3/10
|
7/20
|
|
Zverev |
10/1
|
11/1
|
12/1
|
|
Djokovic |
14/1
|
13/1
|
15/1
|
|
Fils |
25/1
|
22/1
|
25/1
|
|
Ruud |
25/1
|
20/1
|
25/1
|
In 2026, surface has made no difference to Sinner. He has already won two hard court Masters titles, in Indian Wells and Miami, plus three more on clay, in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome. Judging by the bookmakers’ prices, nobody is expected to stop Jannik from claiming another title.
Alcaraz’s absence makes Sinner’s task easier, but it is worth remembering that at the start of the clay court swing, Jannik beat the Spaniard in the Monte Carlo final and moved above him at the top of the ATP rankings. The Italian has not lost a single match on clay in 2026, putting together a run of 17 wins and dropping only three sets, with exactly one lost set at each tournament.
Do the Rivals Have a Chance?
Zverev’s clay court numbers this season are solid: 13 wins and four defeats. The issue is that two of those losses came against Jannik, and neither match offered much sign of a contest, with the German beaten by margins of seven and nine games. Even if Alexander comes through the bottom half of the draw and reaches the final, it is hard to believe he can offer much resistance to the rankings leader, who has beaten him four times in 2026 across all surfaces.
Djokovic is one of the few players to have beaten Sinner in 2026. In the Australian Open semi-final, Novak moved through the draw impressively and turned the match against the Italian around after trailing 1:2 in sets. There is no doubt that the experienced Serbian can still squeeze every last drop out of himself at any major, while the target of winning a 25th Grand Slam title has not gone away.
However, there are plenty of questions about Novak’s condition. After a long break, the Serbian returned on clay in Rome, where he lost his opening match to Prizmic. Djokovic then made his current problems clear:
Djokovic is in the bottom half of the draw and cannot meet Sinner before the final. Much will depend on whether the veteran can play himself into form during the tournament and how straightforward his route to a potential final proves to be, because conserving as much energy as possible before facing the Italian will be crucial.
In Melbourne, Novak played without any warm up tournaments before the major, but that did not stop him from recording three straight set wins at the start. He did, however, have some fortune along the way: Jakub Mensik withdrew before their fourth round match, while Lorenzo Musetti was unable to finish their quarter-final through injury despite leading 2:0 in sets. Djokovic’s shadow is always present at any tournament he enters, but right now there are more questions than reasons for optimism around the Serbian.
Arthur Fils appearing among the top five favourites is more of an advance credit to a talented 21-year-old. The Frenchman played at a high level on clay in Barcelona and Madrid, winning the title in Barcelona and reaching the semi-finals in Madrid. In Rome, he was unable to finish his opening match against Pellegrino due to a hip issue. In Madrid, he met Sinner in the semi-finals but could not provide much resistance, losing by a margin of six games.
Casper Ruud found excellent form during the clay court swing and reached the final in Rome. Yet once again, everything comes back to Sinner. The Norwegian lost to him without a real chance in the Italian capital, and the head to head record stands at 6:0 in Jannik’s favour.
The only things that could stop Sinner from winning the missing trophy are injury, something nobody can be protected from, or a long five set match. Those are the matches that have caused him problems: four of Sinner’s last five defeats at majors came in five sets. There were a few hints of possible trouble in the Rome semi-final, when Daniil Medvedev took the match into a third set and Jannik had to battle hard to recover. He was fortunate that the format was best of three sets.
The Opening Round in Paris Often Produces Upsets
Roland Garros is the main event of the extended clay court swing, and every player is looking to arrive in peak condition. Statistically, over the last five seasons, the percentage of favourites winning in the first round has not dropped below 70%. At the same time, it is in the early stages of the tournament that high profile eliminations regularly happen to top players whose preparation has been incomplete. In 2025, for example, Francisco Cerundolo stood out by losing to Gabriel Diallo at odds of over 6.00, while Daniil Medvedev was beaten by Cameron Norrie at 4.00.
We have picked out three players who could fall short at the start of Roland Garros 2026:
Taylor Fritz. The world No. 8 has effectively had no targeted preparation for Roland Garros and played only one match at the warm up event in Geneva, where he lost to Alexei Popyrin.
The American clearly has not built his season around clay, which is not his surface. Across his career, Fritz’s only notable Paris run was reaching the fourth round in 2024, and he has never otherwise gone beyond the third round. In five of his last six defeats there, he was priced as the bookmaker favourite.
Fritz faces a young and talented compatriot in Nishesh Basavareddy in the first round. Basavareddy has 12 wins from 17 clay court matches this season, so match practice is certainly not an issue. Among his strengths are the ability to sustain a high tempo in rallies and his assured return game, both of which matter on clay.
Nishesh already has useful Grand Slam experience this year after coming through qualifying at the Australian Open and reaching the second round of the main draw. The American could make a statement in Paris as well by beating Fritz, who is a long way short of peak condition.
Fritz vs Basavareddy, 24 May
Felix Auger Aliassime. Since the start of the clay court swing, the Canadian has not enjoyed much success, even though he has been trying to build form. Across four tournaments, he has managed just four wins and suffered the same number of defeats. The only real positive was a quarter-final in Monte Carlo. It is telling that Felix was the favourite in three of those four defeats, while before Roland Garros he suffered a heavy surprise loss in Hamburg to Darko Kovacevic at odds of over 6.00.
Auger Aliassime has played in the main draw in Paris six times, losing four times in the first round as the bookmaker favourite. In 2026, the Canadian begins against Daniel Altmaier, and the German is capable of springing a surprise. In Hamburg, he recorded a shock win over Shelton, while a year ago in Paris he knocked Fritz out of the draw.
Altmaier will also be highly motivated as he defends points from last year’s fourth round run. The German can be backed to win in the first round at
13/5
Valentin Vacherot. The Monegasque squeezed absolutely everything out of himself at his home Masters in Monte Carlo, where he reached the semi-finals, and a year ago he sensationally won the title in Shanghai. Vacherot is very much a one tournament player, but over a longer sample he has not shown the ability to deliver consistently high level results. After his strong Monte Carlo run, for example, he failed to deal with Emilio Nava in the second round of his next tournament in Madrid, despite going off as the clear favourite at odds of 1.30.
Vacherot has never won a main draw match in Paris, and in 2026 he starts against one of the qualifiers.
Overs and Favourites Dominate the Latter Stages in Paris
Roland Garros is known for tight, drawn out matches deep in the tournament. In 2025, for example, Sinner and Alcaraz battled through all five sets in the final, played three tie breaks, and the Spaniard came back from 0:2 down in sets to win the trophy. In 2024, Alcaraz played two five set matches in the semi-final and final against Sinner and Zverev respectively.
That is why, in the decisive matches of the tournament, bets on overs in games and sets, as well as on tie breaks, are worth close attention.
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Over the last two seasons, only one match from the semi-finals onwards did not feature both players winning a set.
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Across the last 19 matches at the tournament from the quarter-finals onwards, 11 tie breaks have been played.
At the same time, despite the tight matches in the latter stages, favourites in Paris have almost stopped making mistakes from the quarter-finals onwards. In the last three years, across 19 matches, there have been only two upsets, while backing favourites to win would have produced a profit of 4.5 units at flat stakes.
Khachanov Thrives in Paris, While Shelton Tends to Start Slowly
Alongside the broader tournament trends, there are also player specific patterns in Paris that have carried over from year to year. We have picked out four of the strongest trends with potential first round bets in mind.
Karen Khachanov. The Russian is known for arriving in optimum shape for the biggest clay court event of the season. Since 2017, he has been a regular in the main draw and has not suffered a single first round elimination, while eight of his nine opening wins came with a minus 1.5 set handicap.
Khachanov to beat Arthur Gea with a minus 1.5 set handicap at the start of the 2026 tournament is available at
9/20
Ben Shelton. The American has played in Paris three times, and his results have steadily improved: first round elimination, third round, fourth round. His defining feature is that he takes time to play his way into the tournament, as in every opening match there he has played at least four sets.
In the first round, Shelton faces the rapidly improving clay courter Mérida Aguilar, and over 3.5 sets is available at
3/5
Stefanos Tsitsipas. The former world No. 3 is now only 82nd in the rankings and has not produced top 10 level results for a long time. None of that applies to Roland Garros, though. After losing in the first round on his Paris debut in 2017, the Greek has never allowed himself to go out at the start of the tournament, regardless of the form he has brought into it.
At the last two Roland Garros tournaments, Tsitsipas won in the first round by more than six games. This time he faces Alexandre Muller, and the Greek to win with a minus 6.5 game handicap can be snapped up at a solid
24/25
Corentin Moutet. The home major clearly gives the Frenchman added confidence. His best Paris result came in 2024, when he reached the fourth round. Yet at the start of the tournament, what matters more is that over the last four years Moutet has never gone out in the first round, with two wins as favourite and two as underdog.
At the start of Roland Garros 2026, Corentin faces Vit Kopriva, a player of broadly similar level. This is an excellent chance to end a poor run of four straight defeats on clay, with
11/20
available on the Frenchman to win.
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