Atalanta vs Sturm Graz: prediction & betting odds 21 January 2025

Atalanta's run of unconvincing performances since the end of last year is expected to come to a halt at home against Sturm Graz. The Austrian champions have not played a competitive match in the last five weeks and have also lost their attacking leader—making a visit to Bergamo a daunting prospect for the underdogs.

Following their defeat in the Italian Super Cup semi-final to Inter Milan (0:2), Atalanta have secured two points in three Serie A fixtures against tough opponents. On Saturday, they fell to Napoli (2:3), despite having far more shots (15-6 and 6-3 on target). In the six Champions League rounds, the Bergamaschi notched up 13 goals, surpassed by only five clubs, and in terms of goal difference (+9), they are bettered only by Liverpool (+12) and Barcelona (+14).

Sturm Graz didn't seem to expect to exert pressure on their rivals in the playoff race, but after defeating Girona (1:0), they inched closer to the top 24. In the last Champions League outing, the Austrians were bested by Lille (2:3), allowing 2.01 xGA and 18 shots. After parting ways with Christian Ilzer, whose staff moved to Hoffenheim, the Austrian champions sold Mika Biereth to AS Monaco and are yet to find a replacement for their main forward.

That encounter with Lille was their last official game, and in four friendlies in January, Sturm Graz managed just one win. A motivated Atalanta side should swiftly pull ahead of the underdog, who cannot withstand the level of competition.