Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabağ: prediction & betting odds 22 October 2025

Athletic Bilbao will be looking to end their Champions League slump after back-to-back defeats to Arsenal (0:2) and Borussia Dortmund (1:4), which have left the team languishing near the bottom of the overall group-stage table. Their next test comes against the surprise package of the tournament — Qarabag, who have collected six points from impressive wins over Benfica and Copenhagen.

After a flying start to the La Liga season with three straight victories, Athletic Bilbao have lost momentum, winning just once in their last nine matches. The Basque side currently sit eighth in Spain (14 points), but their attacking output has dropped sharply — averaging just 1.2 xG and fewer than four shots on target per match over the last five league games. In Europe, things look even bleaker: three goals conceded from set pieces and none scored from open play. The lack of creativity and a dip in form from Iñaki Williams have made their attack predictable and toothless.

Gurban Gurbanov’s Qarabag continue to stun Europe with disciplined and intelligent football. The Azerbaijani champions have now won six matches in a row, including their 3:2 triumph over Benfica and a 2:0 victory against Copenhagen. Domestically, they lead their league comfortably, averaging 2.1 goals per game. Qarabag play mature, structured football — solid in a 4-2-3-1 block, dangerous on the counter, and efficient from set pieces. Their average xG stands at 1.85, with one of the best conversion rates among tournament underdogs.

Athletic Bilbao will rely on the electric atmosphere at San Mamés, but they are currently short on spark and end product. Qarabag, by contrast, are composed, organised, and capable of capitalising on any defensive lapses.