Bulgaria vs Spain: prediction & betting odds 4 September 2025

The Matchday 5 clash in the 2026 World Cup Qualifiers between Bulgaria and Spain will take place on September 4 at the Vasil Levski Stadium in Sofia. Bulgaria vs. Spain: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Bulgaria

For Bulgaria, the qualifying journey for the current World Cup is just beginning. In the last qualification, Bulgaria performed poorly, finishing fourth in their group. The team collected eight points and scored only six goals, surpassing only Lithuania in the standings. Overall, Bulgaria has only two wins in their last 11 World Cup qualifying matches (3 draws, 6 losses). Notably, the team has never qualified for the World Cup in the 21st century.

• The team has won in regular time in 6 of their last 9 home qualifiers for the World Cup.
• Bulgaria has not conceded more than one goal in 90 minutes in 9 of their last 13 home qualifiers.
• The team has scored in regular time in 7 of their last 9 home World Cup qualifying matches.

Predicted lineup for Bulgaria (4-5-1)

Dimitar Mitov – Fabian Nürnberger, Anton Nedyalkov, Hristiyan Petrov, Nikolay Minkov – Ilia Gruev, Ivaylo Chochev, Martin Petkov, Georgi Milanov, Kiril Despodov – Aleksandar Kolev.

Spain

The team is also starting their qualification journey now. In the last qualifiers, Spain confidently secured the top spot in their group, finishing four points ahead of second-placed Sweden. However, in the main tournament, the team was eliminated in the Round of 16, losing to Morocco (0-1). Spain has 14 wins in their last 16 World Cup qualifiers (1 draw, 1 loss). Additionally, the team has not conceded in their last four qualifying matches.

• Spain has won in regular time in 7 of their last 8 away World Cup qualifiers.
• The team has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 90 minutes in 10 of their last 11 away qualifiers.
• No more than one goal was scored in the second half in 5 of Spain's last 7 away World Cup qualifiers.

Predicted lineup for Spain (4-3-3)

Unai Simón – Pedro Porro, Robin Le Normand, Pau Cubarsi, Marc Cucurella – Pedri, Martín Zubimendi, Rodri Hernández – Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.

Midfielders Gavi and Fabián Ruiz are out of the squad due to injuries.

Referee

Srdjan Jovanovic (Serbia)

Matches – 8 (International matches, 2023/24–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 28;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.5;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 18;

Penalties – 25%.

Match Prediction: Bulgaria vs. Spain

Despite Bulgaria's overall struggles in World Cup qualifiers, they have shown commendable results at home. Over their last nine home qualifiers, the team has secured six wins, with two of their three losses coming against top opponents – France (0-1) and Italy (0-2). Additionally, Bulgaria has not suffered a heavy home defeat in World Cup qualification since 2005.

Spain consistently achieves their goals on the road and rarely drops points. However, the team seldom manages to secure a significant scoreline advantage: in their last 11 away World Cup qualifiers, Spain has won nine matches, but only against Liechtenstein did they achieve a victory with a margin greater than two goals.

I expect the hosts to avoid a heavy defeat. My prediction: "Bulgaria with a handicap (+2.5)"