Italy vs Estonia: prediction & betting odds 5 September 2025

The Matchday 5 fixture of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers between Italy and Estonia will take place on September 5 at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo. Italy vs. Estonia: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Italy

After a 0-3 defeat away to Norway in the previous round, Italy bounced back with a 2-0 home win against Moldova. This victory ended a four-match winless streak in World Cup qualifiers (2 draws, 2 losses). Notably, the team scored for the first time in four previous qualifying matches. Additionally, Italy has only scored more than once in two of their last eight World Cup qualifying games. In Group I, Italy is currently in third place.

Gennaro Gattuso has replaced Luciano Spalletti as the head coach.

• At least one opponent failed to score in 6 of Italy's last 7 World Cup qualifying matches.
• No more than two goals have been scored in 8 of Italy's last 9 home World Cup qualifying games.
• The team has opened the scoring in 8 of their last 11 home matches in this tournament.

Predicted lineup for Italy (4-4-2)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco – Nicolo Barella, Nicolo Rovella, Sandro Tonali, Davide Frattesi – Giacomo Raspadori, Matteo Retegui.

Defender Alessandro Florenzi has retired from international football.

Estonia

Jürgen Henn's side suffered a 0-1 home defeat to Norway in the last round. This was their third loss in the current qualifying cycle and sixth in their last seven matches in this tournament (1 win). Additionally, Estonia's three-match scoring streak in World Cup qualifiers came to an end. The team has conceded in all seven of their qualifying games. With three points, Estonia is in fourth place in the standings.

• Estonia has conceded at least two goals in 5 of their last 6 World Cup qualifying matches.
• The team has not won in 5 of their last 6 away World Cup qualifying matches (1 draw, 4 losses).
• Estonia has scored in 5 of their last 7 away games in this tournament.

Predicted lineup for Estonia (4-5-1)

Karl Hein – Michael Schønning-Larsen, Maksim Paskotši, Märten Kuusk, Joonas Tamm – Markus Soomets, Rocco Robert Shein, Konstantin Vassiljev, Mattias Käit, Henri Anier – Rauno Sappinen.

Referee

João Pinheiro (Portugal)

Matches – 17 (International matches, 2024/25 - 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;

Average yellow cards per match – 3;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties – 24%.

Match Prediction: Italy vs. Estonia

Italy needed a shake-up after a series of disappointing results in official matches. The local federation decided to replace Luciano Spalletti, who secured a 2-0 win over modest Moldova in his last game as head coach. Gennaro Gattuso, his successor, will need time to implement his ideas with the team. However, Italy should still be able to defeat their upcoming opponent, given the significant difference in class between the two sides.

Estonia's main task will be to prevent the hosts from scoring. The Baltic team has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven World Cup qualifying matches, but they have not suffered major defensive collapses. The team has not conceded more than three goals in their last nine games in this tournament. It is generally difficult to expect a goal fest from Italy: even at home, they have not scored more than twice in 8 of their last 9 World Cup qualifying matches. Now, with a coach who is not known for attacking play, this trend might continue.

I believe the hosts will claim three points in a low-scoring match. My prediction: Italy to win and Total under 4.5 goals