Slovenia vs Sweden: prediction & betting odds 5 September 2025

The Matchday 5 clash in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers between Slovenia and Sweden will take place on September 5 at the Stožice Stadium in Ljubljana. Slovenia vs. Sweden: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Slovenia

Slovenia had a disappointing campaign in the last qualifiers. The team avoided defeat in 6 out of 10 matches (4 wins, 2 draws) but finished 8 points behind second-placed Russia. They managed only three clean sheets and averaged just 1.3 goals per match. Notably, three of their four victories came against Malta and Cyprus, who occupied the last two spots.

• At least three goals have been scored in Slovenia's last five World Cup qualifying matches.
• At home, the team has avoided defeat in 11 of their last 12 qualifiers (8 wins, 3 draws).
• In 10 of their last 12 home qualifiers, Slovenia conceded no more than one goal.

Predicted lineup for Slovenia (4-4-2)

Jan Oblak – Žan Karničnik, Jaka Bijol, David Brekalo, Erik Janža – Petar Stojanović, Timi Elšnik, Adam Gnezda Čerin, Sandi Lovrić – Benjamin Šeško, Andraž Šporar.

Sweden

Five wins in the last qualifiers (3 losses) secured Sweden the second spot in their group. They then faced playoff matches, where they overcame the Czech Republic in extra time but lost to Poland in the decisive match. As a result, Sweden's winless streak in regular time during World Cup qualifiers extended to four games (1 draw, 3 losses). Furthermore, they failed to score a single goal in this period.

• At least one team failed to score in Sweden's last six World Cup qualifying matches.
• Away from home, the team lost 5 of their last 7 qualifiers (1 win, 1 draw).
• In 6 of their last 7 away qualifiers, Sweden scored no more than one goal.

Predicted lineup for Sweden (4-4-2)

Robin Olsen – Emil Krafth, Isak Hien, Hjalmar Ekdal, Gabriel Gudmundsson – Ken Sema, Jesper Karlström, Anthony Elanga, Lucas Bergvall – Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres.

Midfielder Dejan Kulusevski is not called up due to injury.

Referee

José María Sánchez Martínez (Spain)

Matches – 14 (International matches, 2024/25 - 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;

Red cards shown – 2;

Average fouls per match – 14;

Penalties – 20%.

Match Prediction: Slovenia vs. Sweden

Bookmakers have favored the Scandinavians in the upcoming match, which I find hard to agree with. Sweden reached the decisive playoff match in the last qualifying cycle, but their recent performances have been challenging: four matches without a win or a goal in regular time. Looking at their recent official matches in the Nations League, Sweden won 5 out of 6 games (1 draw), but this was against teams like Estonia, Azerbaijan, and Slovakia.

Slovenia is a solid mid-tier team. Three of their four losses in the last qualifiers came against the top two teams. At home, Slovenia has avoided defeat in 11 of their last 12 World Cup qualifiers (8 wins, 3 draws). Importantly, they kept a clean sheet in 8 of these matches. This is a significant factor against Sweden, who failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away qualifiers.

My prediction: "Slovenia to win or draw"